With tariffs raising the price of goods combined with an uncertain economic future, retail crime will rise, and along with it, lack of employee safety.  New legislation, like California’s Prop 36, is being enacted to combat retail theft. The National Retail Federation is working alongside retailers across the nation to lobby for federal involvement to further penalize perpetrators of organized retail crime. The economic conditions are ripe for an increase in crime. With that said, the price of cereal is up to $9 a box and the homeless population is increasing––with a 40 percent increase in homelessness since 2017. Anyone who thinks this won’t lead to a rise in retail theft, organized and otherwise, is smoking something enviable.

While over 10 million shoplifting cases are reported in the U.S. annually, only 1 in 48 incidents results in an arrest. So, reported criminals are allowed to walk free––often with at least a loose awareness of who reported them and where to find that person during work hours. In this light, why would a store associate making barely over minimum wage risk their own safety to protect a retailer’s bottom line?

Yet the financial impact of retail theft is just the tip of the iceberg. NRF’s 2024 The Impact of Retail Theft & Violence report states that 73 percent of retailers said shoplifters have become “more aggressive and violent over the past year.” A staggering 84 percent of surveyed retailers expressed heightened concern about the violence occurring during theft incidents. So, we’re looking at more theft, more violent theft, and theft causing unprecedented disruption at a time when physical retail is still making a comeback. And as we said, it’s only going to get worse if the tariffs and a subsequent recession come to pass.

What’s an honest retailer to do? Let’s take a look.

Store Associate Safety

We often talk about the need for adequate training to combat organized retail crime, but we rarely talk about the reasons ORC often goes unreported. Depending on the efficacy of a retailer’s loss prevention team and how they work with local law enforcement, store associates that report ORC may feel like their personal safety is threatened––particularly faced by the increased levels of violence and physical aggression accompanying such crimes.

Even in best-case scenarios where shoplifting is registered by the store’s loss prevention team and evidence is passed on to law enforcement, retail theft and ORC are still rarely prosecuted. Very rarely. In fact, while over 10 million shoplifting cases are reported in the U.S. annually, only 1 in 48 incidents results in an arrest. So, reported criminals are allowed to walk free––often with at least a loose awareness of who reported them and where to find that person during work hours. In this light, why would a store associate making barely over minimum wage risk their own safety to protect a retailer’s bottom line?

Why Would Store Associates Report Theft?

Retail is becoming a battleground. More than one in four retail workers have felt unsafe at work. The C-suite often takes for granted that employees will report retail crime without considering the day-to-day reality employees face if they do. Remember, only 1 in 48 crimes reported to law enforcement are actually prosecuted. This means that retail thieves who are often set loose are ready to traipse right back into the store a few hours or days after employees file a report. If store associates aren’t protected or compensated for flagging shoplifters, why would they incur the personal and professional risks of reporting any crime?

Incentivizing employees to report theft is a twofold proposition:

• Employees deserve financial incentives for reporting crime. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Whistleblower Program gives folks who report crimes between 10 percent to 30 percent of the money collected in enforcement actions exceeding $1 million. Even the notoriously stringent IRS gives whistleblowers around 1 percent of what the organization makes from their reports.
• Are employees who report ORC protected at work? Retailers who respond that employees who file reports on the “loss prevention’s phone number” don’t seem to grasp the risk employees are taking to file such a report. The reality is that employees who report ORC or other theft may require flexible work hours, nearby security detail, or other accommodations to feel safe after filing a report. Without corporate support, store associates who risk their personal safety by reporting ORC may need to find another job altogether to mitigate risks to their personal safety.

It’s essential to build a rapport of trust and open communication with store associates. When contingencies are in place to protect their fiscal and physical well-being after reports are filed, employees may willingly incur the personal risk of doing so.

De-Silo Loss Prevention Teams

Store surveillance is expensive. It’s also necessary, as 75 percent of theft incidents occur in stores without adequate surveillance. While store closures have led to an excess of skilled loss prevention professionals, loss prevention teams don’t always want to wait for law enforcement to respond to their reports.

Loss Prevention Magazine says that relationships between retail loss prevention teams and law enforcement are improving, although both parties are also increasingly understaffed. As such, law enforcement may deprioritize retail crime, despite lawmakers’ push for more stringent legislation. The reality is that if officers are understaffed, response priority will be given to violent crimes.

By hosting outreach events to acquaint and familiarize retail loss prevention teams with local law enforcement, retailers can build critical relationships to potentially expedite police response when ORC occurs. Getting involved with local Organized Retail Crime Alliances can also help retail loss prevention teams create effective strategies for action.

Civic Breakdowns

Retail theft is no longer just about a few missing items off a shelf—it’s become a symptom of broader economic, legislative, and societal breakdowns. Amidst ineffective prosecution, increased violence, and lack of job security, store associates are being asked to risk their safety for a paycheck that may barely cover their rent. If we want real solutions, retailers need to stop operating as though store associates are sacrificial watchdogs and start treating them like partners—with compensation, protection, and a seat at the table. Otherwise, the gap between policy and reality will only widen, and no PR spin or anti-theft tech will stop what’s coming.