In 1945 Betty McDonald married a marine and moved to a small chicken farm on the Olympic Peninsula in Washington State. No running water. No electricity. And no prior experience on a farm. Betty decided to write The Egg and I as a semi-fictional, heartwarming and uproarious account of adventure and survival on an American farm. Little known is that Ma and Pa Kettle first appeared in her book. That year the average price of eggs nationwide was 58 cents a dozen. If you shopped at A&P, you could save even more.
The psychological impact of the crisis cannot be overlooked. For many, the sight of empty egg shelves and higher prices has been a stark reminder of supermarkets during the pandemic and the fragility of the food system.
Eggs as Economic Barometer
Fast forward 80 years and welcome to the bird flu epidemic. Here in California (mid-February) the price of Grade AA Large eggs is $7.99 a dozen, and if you go for Cage Free, it’s $11.89. Recently Costco, Whole Foods, and Trader Joe’s imposed egg purchase limits intended to prevent panic buying from the ongoing bird flu outbreak that has caused egg prices to skyrocket and ensure equitable distribution.
This has not gone unnoticed by frustrated consumers who rely on eggs as a staple food, especially the over 40 million on SNAP programs that rely on eggs as their primary source of protein. The lack of protein can result in weakness, hair loss, frequent illnesses, swelling, muscle loss, joint pain and mood changes. Iconic chains like Waffle House upcharging 50 cents extra per egg. Other restaurants are bound to follow. Some restaurants may actually remove egg dishes altogether until this is all over.
Food Industry Disruption
The year 2025 will be remembered as a pivotal moment in the food industry, marked by the widespread impact of a severe bird flu epidemic and to-be-determined tariffs (but that’s another story). The outbreak has not only devastated poultry populations, more than 100 million birds had to be culled, but also disrupted supply chains, driven up prices, forced grocery stores and restaurants and CPG companies that use eggs in their recipes to implement drastic measures to manage shortages. The most critical impact of the egg crisis is frightening consumers.
This latest round of bird flu has sent shockwaves through the food system, as it has migrated from wild birds to chickens, turkeys and ducks. Cattle in at least 446 dairy herds in 15 states have also been affected; the virus has been found in raw milk leaving consumers scrambling to adapt and raising urgent questions about how regulatory agencies like the FDA, USDA, and CDC can better control and mitigate such crises in the future. The administration is cutting funding for these key agencies and their future leaders have come under severe scrutiny about everything from vaccines to their experience in running a $1.6 trillion agency.
Bird Flu Epidemic: A National Crisis
According to the USDA, over 20 percent of the U.S. egg-laying hen population is affected as of now, causing a significant drop in egg production. From the time a chicken is hatched, it takes 18 weeks until they start laying eggs – and the average healthy laying hen lays four to six eggs a week, so prices are going to stay high to make up for the loss of eggs from those 100 million culled birds; that’s about 26 billion eggs. The epidemic has also highlighted vulnerabilities in the food system, particularly the concentration of poultry production in large-scale farms. While these operations are efficient, they are also more susceptible to disease outbreaks, as the virus can spread quickly in densely populated facilities. If they find just one infected bird, the entire flock has to be destroyed.
In response to rising prices and limited availability, many consumers have turned to egg alternatives. Sales of plant-based egg products, such as those made from mung beans or chickpeas, have surged as shoppers seek affordable and sustainable options. Brands like JUST Egg and Follow Your Heart have reported record sales during this period, signaling a potential long-term shift in “egg” consumer preferences to plant-based alternatives.
Pandemic Redux?
The psychological impact of the crisis cannot be overlooked. For many, the sight of empty egg shelves and higher prices has been a stark reminder of supermarkets during the pandemic and the fragility of the food system. While the U.S. has faced significant challenges in managing the bird flu epidemic, other countries not so much. The Netherlands, a major poultry producer, has implemented a robust biosecurity system that includes mandatory vaccination and strict quarantine measures. The country has been able to contain Bird Flu outbreaks with minimal disruption to its food supply. Japan has invested heavily in early detection and rapid response capabilities, using advanced diagnostic kits to identify and isolate infected flocks quickly.
The lesson? We need to learn, and quickly, from these countries’ efforts to work to
strengthen the resilience of our food system. What we learned from the pandemic is that transparent, truthful and consistent messaging from government leaders built public trust and confidence. The countries that succeeded in curbing the pandemic quickly included the gold-standard effort by New Zealand (which implemented one of the earliest and strictest lockdowns, closed borders and enforced quarantine measures) whose Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern consistently provided both transparent and empathetic communication. As a result, the nation experienced very low case numbers and just 2,550 deaths. Other countries with low deaths and cases included Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, Iceland, Vietnam and Singapore. All these countries acted quickly with robust tracing, testing, efficient healthcare systems and forthright communications to their populations.
We can only hope that the new administration operating with the budget cuts it is proposing for medical research and the departments of Health & Human Services follow the lead of these proven tactics to protect our nation from this new strain of Bird Flu.
