Shelley E. Kohan (00:03)
Hi everyone and thanks for joining Retail Unwrapped. I’m very excited to welcome back Evan Gold, EVP of planalytics Welcome, Evan.

Evan Gold (00:13)
Thanks so much, Shelley. It’s great to be back with you again, and certainly want to wish you and your audience a happy holiday season.

Shelley E. Kohan (00:20)
⁓ thank you. Well, it’s going to be happier if the sales are there. And so today we’re going to talk about something that really impacts sales. So we just finished up Black Friday. So let’s talk a little bit about weather, something that really impacts holiday selling. I know for Black Friday, e-commerce did very well.

⁓ Whereas in stores had a moderate increase, maybe 1.7%, 2%, and the e-comm grew like over 10%. So let’s talk about Black Friday weekend and how did weather impact shoppers?

Evan Gold (00:55)
Yeah, I mean, as you know, Shelley, there is no other external driver that influences the consumer as frequently, meaningfully, continuously as the weather. There’s a trillion dollars in retail sales on an annual basis that are influenced by the weather. But for a lot of folks, it’s still not understood or the least measured and act upon factor ⁓ for retailers. So yeah, let’s talk a little bit about the weather because…

You know, as a business, that’s what we do. We help businesses, retailers specifically measure and proactively manage the impact that climate weather has on the consumer. So at a high level, you know, when we think about Black Friday and how the weather impacted shoppers and what that meant, ⁓ the weather really provided a good tailwind for most retailers and locations over Black Friday. I don’t know if you remember like in New York City, you know,

leading up to Thanksgiving, like the days leading up, it was very mild. think New York was over 60, right?

Shelley E. Kohan (01:50)
Absolutely

very mild. was very concerned about that.

Evan Gold (01:55)
And then, yeah, and right on cue, Mother Nature brought in some really frigid cold temperatures into the eastern half of the US right on Thanksgiving, continued through the holiday weekend. Most eastern markets were anywhere from five to 15 degrees below normal. All of that translated to an ideal environment for retailers who had and were marketing seasonal inventory, scarves, gloves, hats, sweaters.

you know, the like. So for most major markets, Black Friday as well was mostly dry for across the US, which meant also that customers were able to get out and get to the stores. But it wasn’t dry for the entire weekend.

Shelley E. Kohan (02:33)
So let me ask you something. So I know the Midwest had a big snow drop on them. And so I’m wondering if you saw any data about the Midwest shopping behaviors, if they were any different than the rest of the country that was more dry for the weekend.

Evan Gold (02:50)
Yeah, definitely, while Black Friday was dry, that snow that you were just talking about really hit the Midwest over the weekend. Chicago, think, had its highest November snowfall ever on Small Business Saturday. And a lot of the Midwest were hit by that snow. And again, even for a place like Chicago that knows how to deal with snow, they’re not used to that volume of snow this early in the season.

Shelley E. Kohan (03:05)
⁓

Evan Gold (03:18)
So we checked with a partner of ours, Facteus, which is the largest provider of consumer track transaction data. And they noted that the Midwest did see a significant increase in online spending on Saturday and Sunday. And they did have growth on Monday as well, but less growth compared to Saturday and Sunday. So we think a lot of that demand, a lot of that online sales were just simply pulled forward because customers were inside.

And that was a pretty big shift. Ultimately, Snowfall can negatively impact foot traffic in the stores, particularly as well as restaurants, entertainment destinations. But it didn’t stop the shoppers. It just shifted where they made those purchases.

Shelley E. Kohan (03:59)
That’s interesting. I think the other thing that’s interesting is I read that a lot of apparel sectors were up. So once it gets cold, a lot of those cold weather items are in apparel. Are there certain products or categories that are more influenced by weather and specifically cold weather?

Evan Gold (04:16)
Yeah, so when you’re talking about cold, obviously, you know, seasonal apparel does very well, the colder that it gets. When you’re talking about snow, it’s very much need based, right? So we’re talking about Chicago in the Midwest, things like ice melt, but even, you know, hot coffee and, you know, firewood and other, other categories, you know, those need based items obviously do do very well. ⁓ When it is warmer than normal,

like places where it was out west, as well as it’s dry, that actually, believe it or not, does well for things like outdoor decorations, and you know, because people will be outside more if they feel, ⁓ you know, like being outside more over the holiday weekend, they will do outdoor activities. So lights and holiday decor do well, as does obviously foot traffic in the malls and shopping centers, entertainment destinations and the like.

Shelley E. Kohan (04:52)
⁓ yeah.

That’s really interesting. So when I lived on the West Coast, I lived there for about, I don’t know, 14 years or so. We always did the boat parades. That was, that’s such a popular outdoor activity. So that makes a lot of sense that people will invest in outdoor decor and stuff like that.

Evan Gold (05:25)
Yep, absolutely. just really, consumers are spending, it’s just where, when, and what they’re putting in their baskets.

Shelley E. Kohan (05:33)
That’s great. So, okay, so now we have Black Friday’s done and over with, Cyber Monday’s done. What are you expecting over the next few weeks?

Evan Gold (05:41)
Yeah, I mean, we are at that time of year, Shelley, where every day matters, right? And many retailers, as you well know, can do 20%, maybe even more of their annual sales in this month of December. So it is crunch time. Now, the good news is the first few weeks of December in the US are going to continue this cold, persistent cold temperatures that we’ve experienced. that’s going to do.

That’s going to keep customers in that winter holiday mindset. Now we do have some winter storms this week ⁓ and threats for next week as well. It’s very different if those storms hit on the week versus the weekend, ⁓ you know, as it relates to those major population centers. So overall, we expect continued favorable demand for seasonal apparel. Again, great news for your retailers that are listening today.

Shelley E. Kohan (06:35)
No, that’s great. So I have a question, Evan. So this is always kind of like, so the retailers have already bought Christmas ⁓ holiday ⁓ items. They’re in the store. They’ve been shipped. They’re there. They’re ready for consumers. So they have to sell them. It’s not like you’re not going to sell them. You have to sell them. So this idea of, you know, isn’t it about not so much the sales of all those items, but the profit? So the more you market down, less profit. So when we have cold weather,

We can sell it at a higher profit, at a better rate, turnover rate, but if it gets warmer or if the weather is off what is expected, then that is when we start losing profit, right?

Evan Gold (07:16)
Yeah, we talk all the time about the fact on that weather is so important in December. Everybody, yes, everybody is out shopping, but that’s really like a common myth that weather doesn’t necessarily influence the shopper in December, because it influences the stores and channels that they shop at, but it’s also directly related to the items that they put in their basket. So December is that highest volume month of the year.

So a small change in spending translates to a large amount of dollars being shifted out of categories, into categories and specific channels. and every retailer obviously wants those sales to take place earlier in the season ⁓ so that profitability will be there ⁓ more so than let’s say later in the season.

Shelley E. Kohan (08:03)
It’s kind of interesting. It’s kind of a tug and pull. They want the sales to happen early and fast at a high profit, but they also don’t want to be sold out of goods either.

Evan Gold (08:13)
That’s right. That’s right. So they’re constantly thinking, so, so what are some

of those retailers, you know, doing about that? Right. They, you know, I don’t know about you, but my email inbox was inundated with a bunch of offers over the, over the holiday weekend. Now those retailers that were able to proactively serve up messaging that was targeted to the conditions where the customer was, you know, so if you’re in Chicago and you get that cold weather, that snowy type of message, right, you’re more likely to go out.

Shelley E. Kohan (08:38)
Yeah.

Evan Gold (08:41)
to those stores or buy those brands, ⁓ which again is great from a profitability perspective, right? So if you have, and large retailers as well as small businesses all have this capability to target customers where they live so that they can buy the items that they’re looking for them to make those purchases on. Assuming to your point earlier, they’re in stock, right? And we’re at that time in the season, everything should be in the store.

Shelley E. Kohan (09:08)
That should be in the store. So outside of

proximity marketing, which is really trying to target, you know, in that localization, that local areas, what else can retailers do? Are they just simply, you know, they just have to take what Mother Nature dishes out or are there actual things that they can do?

Evan Gold (09:25)
Yeah, absolutely there are things you could do. You’re definitely not at the whim of mother nature at this point, right? We talk all the time about proactively addressing the impact of weather, right? So ⁓ having flexible strategies in place, know, something as simple as just putting those weather-driven items in more prominent locations. So when they come in, right, they have what they’re looking for. You’re in stock on those items, certainly leveraging the power of social media to drive that.

Tuning staffing levels, right? If you know that you’re gonna get more or less customers in on certain days, you can tune staffing levels. ⁓ Certainly adjusting replenishment on high velocity goods to make sure you stay in stock on key items, right? That is a big one. The last thing you want is a customer coming in looking for an item that you don’t have, right? So keeping those service levels high. ⁓ And then even unique services when you have inclement weather. If you were able to offer delivery or other… ⁓

services that you can best serve the customers during, again, this all-important period.

Shelley E. Kohan (10:31)
That’s great. Those are great tips. The other thing I want to ask you about is gift cards. So I know gift cards keep growing and growing in popularity. They’re gifted out. Retailers actually don’t see the revenue of the gift card until the purchase is made, right? But is that, do you have any insights on gift carding and is there any influence on gift carding and weather? Is there a correlation there?

Evan Gold (10:53)
Yeah,

there absolutely is. on a personal level, I love gift cards. I know some people think that that’s a little impersonal. I love getting them to stores that I like. And again, most people, as you pointed out, let me restate that retailers, it’s a liability until they’re actually redeemed. And for a lot of consumers, the redemption doesn’t come until later in the season, ⁓ or maybe even into January. So the weather.

Shelley E. Kohan (10:56)
Really?

Evan Gold (11:22)
becomes a driver for when, where, how, and what those gift cards get redeemed for. So there’s influences really into late into the season and into January in terms of how gift cards are influenced by the weather and how the customer executes or redeems them.

Shelley E. Kohan (11:42)
Very interesting. I want you to put on, get out your crystal ball and I want you to tell us what’s in store for 2026. Whether is there ⁓ any kind of advice or tips you can give for retailers going into 2026? What are we going to be seeing?

Evan Gold (11:58)
Yeah, so, you know, the devil obviously is in a lot of those those details based on what you sell. But the one thing that I will tell you is volatility, right? The weather is more volatile now than it ever has been before. have extreme weather events in the US every three weeks versus, you know, back in the 80s, we would have them every four months, right? So everybody knows that the weather is more volatile now than we’ve ever had before. So you’ve got to proactively plan for that.

that volatility. And obviously as you just maybe more, you know, in the near term look kind of through December and even into January, you know, there’s going to be those opportunities and being in a position that you could take advantage of those opportunities because again, the weather is going to be very volatile as you move through the winter, as you move through 2026. understanding what that influences on your customers so that you can better service them.

⁓ and increase your profitability is really what this is all about.

Shelley E. Kohan (12:58)
I know, and Evan, know you won’t do this, but I will do this. And Planalytics, I’ve known Planalytics for I think over a decade, to be honest. I know you do a lot of work with FIT, Fashion Institute Technology, so thank you for that, teaching students about weather and the importance of weather. But when you think about working with retailers, if you could just maybe recap, what are some of the benefits of really looking at, know, using Planalytics or looking at weather?

as a proactive approach to the business. It’s always been reactive as opposed to proactive. as the weather becomes more volatile over time, how can we better be proactive with it?

Evan Gold (13:39)
Yeah, there are a number of use cases around this and we have, you know, all of our clients were, and some of them will be speaking at the NRF show about this as well around use cases around these demand analytics. Very common use cases are around demand forecasting, allocation, replenishment, making sure that you’re in stock, right? Accounting for the weather influences down to the every product, every time period.

every location, incorporating that into the systems and processes that a retailer uses, essentially putting it inside their DNA so that it’s ultimately so they can better serve their customers, Whether that’s servicing them through a marketing perspective, from an in-store perspective, making sure they have enough inventory on the shelves, right? We’re talking around demand forecast accuracy increases of up to 30%, overall profitability on an annual basis of two to six percent.

by incorporating these analytics into those day in and day out activities that every retailer does, now you’re more weather aware and to your point, Shelley, being proactive instead of being reactive. The other thing that I’ll just kind of point out is it gets everybody on the same page around weather impact, right? Weather’s a very emotional topic ⁓ and people may have different viewpoints based on where you are or based on prior positions you’ve held or the business that you’re managing.

This gets everybody on the same playing field for everything from being proactive, but also just in terms of reporting. Exactly how much did weather influence the business helps you better understand what else is happening, especially at this time of year.

Shelley E. Kohan (15:17)
No, that’s great. And it just goes back to the basic principles of our business, Retailing 101, which is right product, right place, right time, and the right quantities at the right price. With the right weather, right. So you mentioned NRF, you and I kind of have a longstanding joke between us where we, you know, we’re connected, we are networked, but we only physically see each other like once a year, except this year we’re going to see each other twice this year, which is great.

Evan Gold (15:28)
with the right weather.

Shelley E. Kohan (15:47)
But are you going to the NRF show? You mentioned you’ll be there.

Evan Gold (15:50)
I will be there, the Planalytics team will be there, it’s retail’s big show, the annual convention, early January in New York. It is going to be cold, and it’s always cold in New York. for your listeners that are coming to the Javits Center for NRF, look for Planalytics, we’re at booth 4039, that’s 4039. We’re happy to meet up with you, Shelley, meet up with your listeners, continue the conversation. It definitely is a highlight of the year that…

We do get to see each other, something that I’m looking forward to. We’ll have a number of events and sessions that Planetlytics is gonna feature. So feel free to connect up with us, go to planalytics.com and let’s connect up in New York ⁓ as well in Do It In Person. I’m looking forward to it.

Shelley E. Kohan (16:33)
No,

that’s fun. It’s so funny. Every time I go, I mean, I’ve been attending NRF for three decades, probably. ⁓ And the boy has the show changed from 30 years ago. Let me just say that. It’s more like a technology show these days. But I do love going. And every time I walk into Javits on the first day, oddly, one of my first thoughts are, am I going to see Evan here this year? ⁓ So.

Evan Gold (16:48)
It really is.

Hahaha

Shelley E. Kohan (17:00)
That’s really interesting. The other thing, speaking of weather, is a big dilemma is that do I wear the coat to the Javits from the hotel or do I do coat check? Like, which is worse? Because the weather is always cold, but coat check’s a real hassle there.

Evan Gold (17:12)
Yeah.

Code check can be

a hassle. Get there early, right? That’s the key. Get there early. Avoid the lines. Yep, exactly.

Shelley E. Kohan (17:18)
That’s a good

idea. Well, I’m looking forward to seeing you and thanks for your tips on weather and giving us a little insights into what December holds for us and a little preview into next year. Always a pleasure having you on Retail Unwrapped

Evan Gold (17:35)
This was a pleasure and wish you, your family and all your listeners a happy and prosperous holiday and look forward to seeing you at NRF.

Shelley E. Kohan (17:43)
Excellent, thank you.