The recent opening of Birkenstock’s first flagship store in India appears to be a perfect fit for the high-end German footwear brand. Kearney’s 2023 Global Retail Development Index™ ranked India as the most attractive emerging country for retail expansion. According to BCG, India’s retail market is expected to grow at 9 to10 percent to reach $2 trillion by 2033.
An increase in affluence, coupled with a shift in spending priorities, is creating new market opportunities. However, if India is a retail destination for your brand, due diligence remains critical. For example, executives need to assess whether consumers are affluent enough to purchase their products and services.
The potential growth of the Indian retail market is winning over executives to expand their global retail footprint. Soumya Jain Agarwal, Chief Editor & CEO at LuxuryFacts, observes that India should be on the radar for international lifestyle and luxury brands, “India is full of promise. Yes, maybe those promises have not been fully delivered in the past 10 years, but the path is there. Consumer awareness has magnified and consumer lingo has changed — they know brands, their collaborations, campaigns, everything. So basically, even if they are not buying just yet, they are getting fully immersed in the brand. And having a physical presence helps to reiterate a lifestyle that a brand wants to promote.”
Abhay Gupta, Founder & CEO at Luxury Connect observes there is optimism and that international lifestyle and luxury brands should expand their footprint in India: “Success of Birkenstock could surely encourage other global bridge to luxury brands make a beeline towards India.”
New Wealth
Macroeconomic factors are undeniably fundamental to the growth of India’s retail market. The expanding middle class has given consumers, particularly millennials, the financial power to spend. This trend is set to accelerate as India’s economy continues to outgrow major economies. According to Goldman Sachs, the number of upwardly mobile consumers (per capita income of more than $10,000 annually) in India is projected to increase from 60 million in 2023 to 100 million by 2027.
Desire-Economy
A desire-economy driven by rising aspirations is disrupting the dynamics of the Indian consumer market. Consumers who prefer brand names and care about their peers’ opinions are increasingly demanding prestige brands.
This spending power is creating new high-growth market opportunities. For example, the smartphone market could triple to $90 billion by 2032. While Indians previously tended to opt for cheaper devices, they are now more willing to trade up. A Morgan Stanley survey found that respondents aged 18-25 would consider paying 30 percent more for their next device.
Indeed, many shareholders initially viewed India as a major disappointment for Apple. However, this is changing. Apple’s market share in India grew from 4.6 percent in 2022 to 6.4 percent in 2023. Since 2023, Apple has opened two stores in Mumbai and New Delhi, with plans to expand to Noida, Bengaluru, and Pune.
Mall Boom
On the supply side, India’s retail infrastructure remains significantly underdeveloped. Organized brick-and-mortar retail accounts for only about 12 percent of the overall retail market. However, a shopping mall boom is driving market expansion. According to Deloitte, the number of malls increased from just three in 2000 to over 530 in 122 cities by 2022. The 2023 opening of the luxury mall Jio World Plaza in Mumbai marked the debut of Balenciaga and Valentino in India.
According to Agarwal, “The opening of the entire Jio World Centre (not just the Plaza) marks a turning point. It offers the much-needed infrastructure that luxury brands need in the country. With Anant Ambani’s wedding being held at the Jio World Convention Centre, they pretty much advertised it as the space to be in.” Gupta adds, “Jio World Plaza is a game changer for the Mumbai luxury market as well as the overall luxury market. Mumbai boasts a large number of the HNI communities besides being home to the Bollywood celebrities and stock market czars!”
Consumers appear to be buying into this high-end shopping experience. As one reviewer noted on Google, “This mall is the solution to the idea of “Let’s go to Dubai for shopping!’ It’s an ultra-luxurious shopping destination.”
Reality Check
An increase in affluence, coupled with a shift in spending priorities, is creating new market opportunities. However, if India is a retail destination for your brand, due diligence remains critical. For example, executives need to assess whether consumers are affluent enough to purchase their products and services. According to the World Bank, India’s GDP per capita is only $2,411, compared to $12,720 for China and $76,330 for the United States. Harley Davidson exited the Indian market in 2020 because its bikes were simply too expensive and out of reach for middle-class consumers. The legendary motorcycle manufacturer returned in 2023, hoping to win over the middle class with its affordable X440 motorcycle.
Indeed, Harley Davidson failed to recognize that the local competitor, Royal Enfield, was the preferred choice among the Indian middle class. This scenario is played out in many other sectors. Cartier and Tiffany have a minimal market presence in India, which is surprising given that India is the second-largest gold jewelry market in the world. Indian consumers continue to favor locally inspired designs and maintain long-lasting relationships with their family jewelers.
Cultural Sensitivities
As with any international market, it is imperative for executives to manage cultural differences. According to Gupta, “Educating the market, localizing the collections to suit cultural festivities can be a great enabler towards success.” For example, Bulgari introduced the mangalsutra (an Indian tradition of a meaningful marriage necklace) specifically for the Indian bridal market.
The influence of Bollywood is a massive selling point with Priyanka Chopra Jonas serving as a global ambassador for the brand. Integrating “Indianness” will be crucial for market success. H&M, which has over 60 stores in India, is launching a collaboration with Indian designer Anamika Khanna, with the collection available in India and internationally.
Regulatory Barriers
Regulatory constraints on retail investment still pose a significant barrier to entry. For example, single-brand retailers with foreign investment exceeding 51 percent are required to source at least 30 percent of their goods from India. According to Gupta “Understanding all possible routes of entry and to be able to choose the right one that aligns with the brands long-term goal is a critical first step.” In many cases, partnering with a local company is a prerequisite for market entry. Dockers, for instance, recently re-entered the Indian market in partnership with Ace Turtle. Similarly, Galeries Lafayette plans to open stores in Delhi and Mumbai in collaboration with Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited (ABFRL).
Concerns about China
China has long been the go-to market for international brands, while India was viewed as a longer-term business opportunity — the “next China.” However, the economic slowdown in China, coupled with geopolitical tensions, has changed how executives approach the Chinese market. According to Savills’ Global Luxury Retail 2024 Outlook, new store openings by luxury brands in China decreased by 12 percent year-over-year. This reflects a broader trend of Chinese consumers holding back their spending. For example, third-quarter earnings reports showed that Apple’s sales in China declined by 6.5 percent to $14.73 billion. More dramatically, Starbucks reported a 14 percent drop in same-store sales in China.
The instability in China has forced executives to mitigate risk and realign their market expansion priorities. As a result, a larger share of investments is shifting towards India.
A New Era
The retail market in India has reached a tipping point with the transformation of the country’s consumer markets putting pressure on international brands to accelerate their retail expansion.
Starbucks, which operates over 390 stores across 54 Indian cities in a joint venture with TATA, plans to increase its network to 1,000 stores by 2028. The company is placing a big bet on tier 2 and 3 cities, which, much like in China, are home to aspirational customers. The arrival of Tim Hortons in 2023 serves as a warning of future competitive activity. Starbucks’ rapid expansion is not just about securing the best locations, but also about building strong relationships with prospective customers.
The bottom line is that succeeding in India will never be easy. The practicalities of doing business — think red tape — can be a daunting challenge. However, the potential rewards are immense. India is on track to become the world’s third-largest economy, and brands can no longer afford to miss out. Birkenstock may be taking its first step into the market, but it surely won’t be its last.
