Big Shift: “Real Food” Circles the Aisles
The core message of the new Dietary Guidelines for Americans is to eat more whole foods, more protein, and fewer highly processed, sugary items. It aligns almost perfectly with how many shoppers already say what they want to eat. For retailers, that means the perimeter of the store (produce, meat, seafood, dairy, bakery) is now explicitly backed by federal guidance as the default starting point for healthier choices. But don’t expect these grocers to stop selling high-margin snacks, sodas, candies and ultra-processed foods…unless shoppers stop buying them. Retailers respond to two major things: consumer demand and manufacturer incentives and promotions.
Very few would argue against the explicit call to reduce added sugars and ultra-processed foods, which the USDA estimates make up 70 percent of the foods on our supermarket shelves. However, we are still awaiting a standard definition from the FDA, HHS and USDA for the exact definition of an UPF. Is it ultra-chemically processed, overly salty or sugary, high-fat, highly caloric, synthetic …what is it? Until that is finalized, we are unlikely to see a major shift in consumption behaviors any time soon.
How will the new dietary guidelines reshape the grocery store? And the answer is: The core of the store is officially on warning of a higher risk, according to the government.
The Slow Food Movement
Food manufacturers, for both national and store brands, don’t pivot overnight. Reformulating a product from swapping out artificial colors and dyes, reducing sugar, and removing artificial additives can take anywhere from several months to multiple years, depending on the complexity of manufacturing to the challenges of delivering taste, texture, cost and food safety. And who knows if consumer demand will even be there for these new products. PepsiCo is hedging its bets with the launch of Simply NKD Doritos and Cheetos, which have removed artificial colors and flavors, resulting in a pale yellow color (instead of the bright orange that we are used to licking off our fingers). The company is not replacing the originals, just offering these as an alternative, and to test whether or not a consumer will make the switch.
For most shoppers pushing a cart through the supermarket aisles, these new guidelines won’t change much, at least not right away. It’s important to note that these guidelines are not laws that stipulate what one can buy or what the supermarket can sell. The question is whether the Make America Healthy Again and related guidelines will have a downstream effect on store layouts and promotions.
Will the CPG companies reformulating products to healthier change shopping behaviors? We are likely to see more in-store signage and displays that promote meat, dairy, eggs and produce as “guideline-friendly.” We anticipate more CPG brands hurrying to reformulate products to avoid being thought of as “bad food.” Front-of-pack claims will likely promote “now with less sugar” and “made with whole grains.” Expect also to see “better-for-you” messaging ramping up on supermarkets websites, apps and in-store. Target, for example, announced that it is expanding its wellness assortment, including protein products and nonalcoholic beverages by 30 percent and holding ‘wellness week’ savings events. Is it optics and posturing or the real thing? Retailers and CPG never miss a moment to glom onto the next trend. For the health of the nation, we hope it’s not just confirmation bias.
Margin Opportunity vs. Message Risk
The elevation of protein, especially meat and whole‑fat dairy, creates clear sales opportunities, but also potential reputational and health pitfalls if the story stops at just eating “more protein.” Many nutritionists and health professionals are questioning these recommendations. Health organizations, including the American Heart Association, warn that emphasizing full‑fat animal products without equal focus on saturated‑fat limits and plant‑based proteins sends mixed messages, and retailers that lean too hard into RFK, Jr.’s “butter and beef are back” marketing messaging risk being seen as out of step with heart‑health guidance.
“Limit alcoholic beverages: Consume less alcohol for better overall health” is a big departure from the previous guidance of one drink a day for women and two for men – contradicting the Surgeon General’s 2025 Advisory on the link between alcohol and cancer risk. To hedge all the contradictory bets, supermarkets that sell alcohol might consider merchandising beer, wines and distilled beverages with non-alcoholic offerings integrated in their displays, especially since this market is booming among millennials and Gen Z who seek moderation and more innovative alternatives.
Will the Guidelines Take Hold or Will We Go Back to Donuts?
Dietary advice is a moving target. Eat fewer eggs, then a year later, hey, eggs are okay to eat. Fat is bad and will clog your arteries. Now fat is back. Carbs are bad, then carb loading becomes the trend. Research shows that while labeling and nutrition information can shift purchases, the effect is strongest when the “healthy” option doesn’t sacrifice taste. It’s not surprising that the consumer is mystified about what’s true, safe and sustainable. Aligning external signals with internalized food behavior is a science unto itself.
Only time will tell if PepsiCo’s Simply Naked line works when a shopper is faced with making the choice. Remember that starting with the boomers, our senses and taste buds have been trained on artificial flavors and colors. The TV dinners, CPG innovations in convenience and shelf life, transformed an entire generation’s palate.
The real test for these guidelines is whether the collective power of the grocery industry, retailers and manufacturers will take the healthier path, or the path of least resistance. My bet is that despite all the guidelines, logic and nutritional advice, the donut aisle will stay just as irresistible as ever.
