When the Trump administration imposed tariffs on imports from key trading partners like Mexico and China in 2018, the goal was to protect U.S. industries and encourage domestic production. However, the food industry—a complex, globalized network of producers, distributors, and consumers—has faced significant unintended consequences ever since.
Avocado trees take 5 to 13 years to mature and produce a commercially viable crop, which underscores the fact that immediate increases in domestic production are not feasible. Expanding avocado production alone would require substantial land and water resources, which are already under pressure in California due to recurring droughts.
Tariff Tyranny
Fast forward to March 4, 2025, when at midnight Trump once again kept his promise to impose tariffs on the three top American trading partners: China, Mexico and Canada. As we have heard repeatedly, the tariffs on China’s exports increased by an additional 10 percent, and 25 percent on goods from Mexico and Canada. Now, get ready for a trade war as these countries announce their own retaliatory tariffs. China imposed tariffs of 10 to 15 percent on U.S. farm products including soybeans, chicken, meats, wheat and corn. China also has banned 25 U.S. companies from selling to, or investing in China. Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he will impose tariffs on $107 billion worth of U.S. products imported into his country and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she would announce retaliatory tariffs on Sunday.
House of Cards
The tariffs imposed in 2018 disrupted supply chains, increased costs, and highlighted the challenges of shifting to domestic production for crops like avocados, tomatoes, berries, apples, and garlic, and we can expect even more disruption with these new tariffs. Compounding these issues is the growing impact of climate change, which is reshaping where and how crops can be grown in the United States. The implications of these new tariffs extend far beyond immediate economic shifts; they also raise questions about food security, agricultural sustainability, and the long-term viability of U.S. crop production.
The Immediate Impact
The Trump administration has said that these tariffs are being imposed to stop the movement of fentanyl and immigration over the U.S. borders and are also intended to incentivize domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign goods. But not so fast. The food industry, which relies heavily on imports for year-round availability and cost efficiencies, will be hit hard and the idea that it will force more foods to be produced here in the U.S. is simply foolish. Mexico, for instance, supplies over 80 percent of the avocados consumed in the U.S., while China grows 90 percent of all the world’s garlic and supplies 60 percent of all the apple juice concentrate to the U.S. When tariffs are applied, no matter what the administration says or implies, the costs are passed down the supply chain, ultimately increasing prices for consumers and squeezing margins for businesses.
For example, the price of avocados, now a staple in American diets, surged by as much as 40 percent in some regions following the 2018 tariffs. Similarly, tomato prices rose, impacting restaurants and food processors that rely on affordable imports. The tariffs also strained relationships with trading partners, leading to retaliatory measures. Mexico, for instance, targeted U.S. agricultural exports like pork and dairy, further complicating the economic landscape for American farmers.
Domestic Crop Production
In response to the tariffs, some policymakers and industry leaders called for increased domestic production of crops currently imported from Mexico and China. While this sounds like a straightforward solution, the reality is far more complex. Growing crops like avocados, tomatoes, berries, apples, and garlic domestically on a scale large enough to replace imports would require significant time, investment, and changes to agricultural practices. While California has been a powerhouse for fruit and vegetable production, increasingly erratic weather patterns and prolonged droughts have raised concerns about its future as the leading agricultural hub. The agricultural challenges posed by climate change are not simply local. Global agricultural supply chains are inherently interconnected. Severe weather in one region can lead to shortages and price hikes across the globe as we have witnessed in the rise of coffee prices from Brazil and cocoa prices from Africa.
Avocados: A Long-Term Investment
Avocados are a prime example of the challenges involved in shifting to domestic production. The fruit thrives in specific climates, primarily in regions with warm temperatures and well-drained soils, such as California and parts of Florida. However, even in these areas, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) avocado trees take 5 to 13 years to mature and produce a commercially viable crop, which underscores the fact that immediate increases in domestic production are not feasible. Expanding avocado production would require substantial land and water resources, which are already under pressure in California due to recurring droughts.
Tomatoes and Berries: Labor-Intensive Crops
Tomatoes and berries are labor-intensive crops that rely heavily on seasonal migrant labor. While the U.S. has the capacity to grow these crops, the cost of labor and the availability of workers are significant barriers. Additionally, tomatoes and berries require precise growing conditions, including specific temperatures and soil types, which limit where they can be cultivated. For example, Florida and California dominate U.S. tomato production, but climate variability and water scarcity pose ongoing challenges which is why so much of the California tomato production is done in large scale-indoor climate-controlled greenhouses.
Apples and Garlic: Climate and Soil Constraints
Apples are primarily grown in Washington, New York, and Michigan, but expanding production to meet domestic demand would require new orchards, which take 4 to 5 years to become productive. Similarly, garlic, which is predominantly grown in California, requires well-drained soils and a specific climate. While garlic is relatively easy to grow, scaling up production to replace Chinese imports would take years and require significant investment in infrastructure and processing facilities.
The Role of Climate Change
Even as the U.S. considers expanding domestic crop production, climate change is altering the agricultural landscape. Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events are affecting where and how crops can be grown. These changes complicate efforts to achieve self-sufficiency in food production.
Climate change is also shifting traditional growing zones, making it harder to predict where crops can thrive. For example, warmer temperatures in California, the nation’s largest agricultural producer, are reducing snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains, a critical source of irrigation water. This has led to water shortages and forced farmers to fallow fields or switch to less water-intensive crops. Similarly, rising temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast are affecting apple production, as some varieties require a certain number of chilling hours to produce fruit.
Water Scarcity
Water scarcity is a growing concern for U.S. agriculture, particularly in the West. Crops like avocados and tomatoes, which require significant irrigation, are especially vulnerable. In California, prolonged droughts have forced farmers to drill deeper wells or abandon certain crops altogether. This trend is unlikely to reverse, as climate models predict more frequent and severe droughts in the coming decades.
Extreme Weather Events
Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. These events can devastate crops, disrupt supply chains, and increase production costs. For example, Hurricane Michael in 2018 caused over $1.5 billion in agricultural losses in Florida, damaging crops like tomatoes and pecans. Similarly, wildfires in California have destroyed orchards and vineyards, further straining the state’s agricultural output.
The Path Forward: Balancing Trade and Sustainability
The unintended consequences of Trump’s tariffs on the food industry underscore the complexity of global supply chains and the challenges of achieving domestic self-sufficiency. While expanding domestic crop production is a worthy goal, it must be pursued with an understanding of the time, resources, and environmental constraints involved. Climate change adds another layer of uncertainty, requiring adaptive strategies to ensure the long-term viability of U.S. agriculture. Trump’s position to roll back climate policies and regulations and withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement in his first day in office makes it unlikely that during this administration we will see any progress on sustainability, rather it seems like U.S. agriculture will face even more challenges.
To address the challenges of climate change and resource scarcity, the U.S. must invest in agricultural innovation. This includes developing drought-resistant crop varieties, improving water management practices, and adopting precision agriculture technologies. Farmers need support to navigate the challenges of shifting to new crops and adapting to climate change, which seems unlikely with this administration’s budget cuts and federal worker layoffs. Farmer access to affordable financing, technical assistance, and risk management tools is a must. Policymakers must consider incentives for sustainable farming practices, such as cover cropping and agroforestry, which can improve soil health and resilience which by all accounts are being eliminated or put on hold by the Health & Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and DOGE chief Elon Musk.
Labor shortages remain a critical barrier to expanding domestic production of labor-intensive crops. The constant threat of deportation has uprooted the workforce with many not showing up for work due to fear of ICE raids at work sites. CBS News estimates that about 42 percent of U.S. farm workers are undocumented. Comprehensive immigration reform and programs to attract and retain agricultural workers are essential to ensuring a reliable workforce if the goal is to produce more of our foodstuffs on U.S. soil.
These latest tariffs imposed by the Trump administration expose the vulnerabilities of the U.S. food industry and highlight the challenges of achieving domestic self-sufficiency. While expanding domestic crop production is a long-term goal, it is not a quick or easy solution and certainly adding tariffs to the three countries that we import a lot of our food from is not the solution.
And here’s the rub. It is the American consumer who may bear the brunt of these tariffs. Is the administration not connecting the proverbial dots here to understand that shoppers already saddled with inflationary price tags on their grocery staples are not going to be sanguine about paying even more for their children’s apple juice or Superbowl guacamole? The food industry is going to take a major hit, but it is the consumer who will pay. In an unpredictable, fractious market environment, this could signal the beginning of an implosion of our food supplies, not the liberation of the U.S. as an onshore supply of some of the most basic foodstuffs that Americans rely on. As we said, how long does it take to grow an avocado tree? Longer than the next two presidential administrations.
