Despite the National Retail Federation’s talking points about a “fundamentally healthy” economy and that retail will maintain its “momentum” going into the year-end holiday season, many retailers aren’t feeling it. And shoppers on whom retailers depend for results aren’t feeling it either. The Conference Board reported that the Consumer Confidence Index took a nearly seven-point dive at the end of September with all five components that make up the index trending down.

When it comes to big cultural moments like this, there’s no place like Target,” said Jill Sando, executive vice president and chief merchandising officer, in a statement. “With a captivating shopping experience and the largest assortment of retailer-exclusive products, this is Target at our best and I’m so excited for families to celebrate Wicked with us.”

Challenging the Popular Narrative

While core retail, excluding motor vehicles, gasoline stations and food services, has advanced 3.3 percent through the first nine months of the year, a significant share of that growth is credited to nonstore retail’s 8 percent advance year-over-year — it’s the largest core retail sector by far. Other major sectors were tepid at best. General merchandise stores rose by less than three percent, and food and grocery stores rose by only two percent.

Considering that inflation has been running in the three percent range most of the year, I see more lethargy than retail momentum heading into the year’s finale. That said, there are some outliers:

• The nation’s number one retailer Walmart was up 5.4 percent through July
• Number three Costco just ended its fiscal year on September 1 with comparable sales rising 5.3 percent, or 5.9 percent, excluding gasoline and foreign exchange
• TJX, ranked number 15, rose 5.7 percent through the end of July

But many of the nation’s largest retailers aren’t experiencing the joy. Take Target, ranked number seven in NRF’s top 100 retailers list. It ended the first six months of the year with revenues off 0.2 percent, dropping from $50.1 billion to $50 billion. It came off the fiscal year 2023 with revenues down 1.6 percent, from $108 billion to $106 billion, and in 2023, it got an extra week to make its comparable numbers; otherwise, it would have been down another $1.7 billion in the year.    

Sure, winter holiday retail in 2024 could squeak by with a 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent increase over last year, as the NRF predicts. However, NRF’s holiday spending forecasts throughout the first part of 2024 have been well below 2023 levels, signaling a general malaise where holiday celebrations are concerned. And inflation is the unaccounted-for bogyman lurking in the background. 

Wicked Powerhouse Marketing Machine

Fortunately, a few retailers have something in their pre-Black Friday back pocket that might magically transform their holiday outlook: the release Universal Pictures’ Wicked. The big-budget musical movie starring Ariana Grande as Glinda and Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba takes the Broadway hit to the silver screen in a two-part backstory of the Wicked Witch of the West and her sister Glinda’s start before they meet up with Dorothy, Toto, Scarecrow, Tinman and the Cowardly Lion. There’s precedent for this film adaptation; Wicked has been playing continuously on Broadway for 21 years with revenues to date of $1.6 billion and has an ardent fan base.

Set to hit theaters on Friday, November 22, ahead of Thanksgiving, Fandango reported that first-day presales of tickets make Wicked the number-two release this year after the less inventive Deadpool & Wolverine. In anticipation of what promises to be a mega-hit, Universal has lined up a star-studded cast of retailers and brands to partner with in the hope that the two witches from Oz will cast a spell on shoppers spooked by their less exotic and more complicated lives.

Wicked to the Rescue

Wicked collaborations are on steroids (think Barbie), bridging apparel, accessories, footwear, home decor, beauty toys, cosplay, publishing, and collectibles — ranging from aspirational to mass-market brands. Tie-ins include a Lexus promotion running through the end of the year, Absolut vodka in Elphaba green, Bloomingdale’s with a to-be-announced promo, Rebecca Minkoff handbags, and Foster Grant sunglasses. Plus, Starbucks will offer Glinda’s Pink Potion and Elphaba’s Cold Brew drinks along with a range of thematic drinkware.

Other brands and retailers on the Wicked jetstream include Aldo, Build-A-Bear, Bombas, Crocs, Fisher-Price, Forever 21, H&M, Hallmark, Hasbro, Hot Topic, Kohl’s, Vera Bradley, Primark, Walmart and many more.

While most brands and retailers are waiting to launch closer to the release date, Ulta Beauty’s Wicked lineup featuring OPI nail polish, r.e.m. Beauty, Beekman 1802 clean skincare products and Conair tools already hit stores in early October.

Barbiecore Comparables

In 2023, Barbie was the year’s top-grossing film generating some $1.8 billion at the box office. Nobody knows but given Wicked’s Broadway success plus tailwinds from the seasonal classic The Wizard of Oz, Wicked should be an even bigger hit at the box office.

In advance of Barbie’s release, Mattel had lined up about 100 licensees to propel the movie and its Barbie hot property forward. According to Stifel analysis, Mattel expected to generate $100 million in revenue off the film co-produced by Mattel Films and Warner Bros. Discovery. The goal was to “elevate” the Barbie brand across a wide range of product categories beyond toys and extend her life.

Fashion retailers including Gap, Forever 21, Zara, H&M and Hot Topic offered a wide range of Barbiecore fashion, for women and girls and Selfridge’s in London featured a Barbie World in its Corner Shop featuring beauty and a “Barbie Dream Wardrobe Rental.”

Barbiecore carried over into 2024 as Mattel celebrated Barbie’s 65th “birthday” on March 9, making her a Pisces. Target got in on the anniversary action with a “Write Your Legacy” Barbie-themed apparel and accessories collection for pre-teen girls, along with other Barbie-themed products across the store. But beyond carrying licensed tie-in Barbie products and dolls associated with the 2023 film release, it waited for Barbie to be a proven property.

Such is not the case for Wicked. Target has jumped in with both feet in advance of the release, knowing that the beloved Wizard of Oz characters are time-tested and wicked witch Elphaba will draw even more guests to its doors. As the Wizard, played by Jeff Goldblum said, “The best way to bring folks together is to give them a real good enemy.”

Target’s Wicked Dreams

On the heels of its impressive deal with Taylor Swift, Target is maxing out on merch and promotions well in advance of the movie’s release date. Elphaba star Cynthia Erivo is taking center stage with Target as her exclusive retail partner in a national marketing campaign featuring her singing the powerful “Defying Gravity” in TV and social media spots. 

Target has also lined up over 150 Wicked-inspired merchandise partners – 70 percent are Target-exclusives – to fill its shelves across fashion, toys, beauty, home, electronics, entertainment, food and beverage and collectibles. Merchandise started rolling out early in October, and it’s already made a hit with its exclusive Elphaba-green and Glinda-pink Stanley Quencher Tumblers in 40-ounce and 20-ounce sizes. The Today Show reported that the Wicked Tumbler launch on October 13 was a repeat of the mayhem experienced earlier this year when Target dropped its first limited-edition Stanley Tumbler.

Wicked merch from Lego, Mattel, Nessarose, Fisher-Price and Funko Pop! will be featured in the toy aisles and the film’s costume designer Paul Tazewell has created a range of clothing, accessories and shoes for customers to dress up in Wicked spirit, plus he designed home items to decorate with.

Target stores with Ulta shop-in-shops will carry its full line of Wicked beauty offerings. In the electronics department, shoppers can pick up a Wicked karaoke machine and microphone so everyone can perform the musical’s hits. Target announced its own exclusive “Wicked the Soundtrack” on vinyl and CD from Universal Music Group (a la Taylor Swift).

Wicked Store Takeover

To dial up the Wicked juice, Target’s Jersey City store will be transformed into the ‘Land of Oz’ on November 15, right before the movie’s release, with a whole host of special events and giveaways. Then on November 22 and 23, four other Target stores in Chicago, Los Angeles, Minneapolis and Seattle will go all out in pink and green Wicked as well.

Nationwide Wicked shop-in-shops will pop up in most Target stores and Its “Bullseye’s Playground” in the front of the store will take center stage as the headquarters for a wide range of $5 and under impulse items.

“When it comes to big cultural moments like this, there’s no place like Target,” said Jill Sando, executive vice president and chief merchandising officer, in a statement. “With a captivating shopping experience and the largest assortment of retailer-exclusive products, this is Target at our best and I’m so excited for families to celebrate Wicked with us.”

A Lot’s Riding on Wicked

The Robin Report just named Target TTR’s Retail Hit of the Week after it announced its latest merchandising deal with Taylor Swift, who’s held the number one top-producing artist spot for four consecutive years according to the IFPI (International Federation of the Phonographic Industry).

Target has built a long-term relationship with Swift, carrying over ten exclusive versions of her albums, but as strong a draw as she is, Swift alone couldn’t pull Target out of its funk last year. On the other hand, Wicked’s witches might just do it and combined with the wizardry of this year’s Taylor Swift collab, Target should easily surpass its tepid 1.6 percent growth from fourth-quarter last year, which included the November, December and post-holiday January shopping season.

Looking back, Target’s holiday 2023 lineup was pretty standard Target fare, with nothing approaching the excitement of this year’s Wicked and Taylor Swift offerings. I’ve got to agree with Sando, “We’re bringing that special ‘Tarzhay’ magic to gift giving — making it fun, effortless and affordable for every family.”