2025 may go down as the year retail lost the plot — and tried to rewrite it at the same time.
At a recent Robin Report roundtable, four veteran retail experts — Mark Cohen, Warren Shoulberg, Phil Lempert, and Jasmine Glasheen — unpacked a year shaped by political chaos, economic contradiction, and rapidly shifting consumer behavior. Editor Deborah Patton moderated the session, which revealed a retail industry both remarkably resilient and increasingly fragile.
Here’s what we learned.
Tariffs Are the New COVID
When former President Trump reignited a global trade war in April, many hoped it would be political theater. Instead, it became a seismic shock.
“Tariffs are the new COVID,” declared Warren Shoulberg, comparing the whiplash of constantly changing rules to the darkest days of the pandemic. “Retailers are waiting for the other shoe — or 1,400 shoes — to drop.”
Mark Cohen went further, calling the tariffs an “unwarranted, possibly illegal, and completely chaotic disruption” that could take years to unwind, even if courts eventually strike them down. The move, he warned, was not only economically destabilizing but an echo of the pandemic’s disorientation: “It’s COVID redux, as far as I’m concerned.”
Costco Takes a Stand — Alone
If there was a hero in this story, it was Costco.
The warehouse giant took the unusual step of suing the federal government, claiming the tariffs were illegal. “You have to respect Costco,” said Shoulberg. “They continue to not play by the White House’s rules.”
But that courage underscored a larger disappointment. “Costco is the only big player that has stepped up,” said Cohen. “You would think the automotives, grocers, everyone would speak up — and they haven’t.”
The AI Tipping Point (and Its Cracks)
While 2025 brought supply chain chaos, it also saw the full arrival of artificial intelligence in retail operations — and not always with the promised results.
Walmart led the way with AI-powered efficiency, but not every experiment landed. Jasmine Glasheen pointed to Target’s botched rollout of dynamic pricing, which sparked consumer backlash. “You’re telling customers, ‘We’re going to get every cent we can out of you,’” she said. “Why would anyone trust you?”
Lempert echoed caution, warning that grocers rushing AI into the back office — like Kroger’s failed Mercado fulfillment centers — often underestimated complexity: “Just because we can do something doesn’t mean it’s going to work.”
Still, the panel agreed that well-deployed AI could provide meaningful benefits, from smarter inventory management to personalized shopping lists. The challenge is how — and where — it’s introduced.
The Supermarket Saga: SNAP, RFK Jr., and San Francisco Lawsuits
Nowhere was the volatility of 2025 more palpable than in grocery. Phil Lempert, The Supermarket Guru, laid out the layers: SNAP benefit disruptions, sudden CEO departures, and lawsuits like the one out of San Francisco that targeted ultra-processed foods — which account for 70% of a typical store’s inventory.
“If those products are banned in San Francisco, what happens to the rest of the store?” Lempert asked. “The implications are massive.”
Adding pressure were RFK Jr.’s sweeping health mandates and a climate-driven spike in food costs. “Never in 25 years have supermarkets been this uncertain,” said Lempert.
A GLP-1 Gold Rush Reshapes Food and Fashion
If tariffs and lawsuits drove fear, GLP-1 drugs inspired frenzy. These weight-loss medications, led by brands like Ozempic and Wegovy, triggered a rapid industry response.
Nestlé and ConAgra rolled out high-protein, GLP-friendly products. Kroger launched a private label line. Surcana data suggested GLP users would account for 35% of all food and beverage purchasing by 2030.
Retailers also braced for downstream effects in apparel and health categories. “I never expected the traction to move this quickly,” Lempert said. And with pill versions pending FDA approval, adoption is likely to accelerate.
Gen Z’s Sensory Overload and the Retail Backlash
But not all disruption is policy-driven.
Jasmine Glasheen described younger shoppers as “overstimulated” by in-store experiences. “78% of young consumers say they’re overstimulated,” she noted, praising Walmart’s low-sensory shopping windows while critiquing Urban Outfitters for cranking up the visual noise.
Her broader thesis? Retail is overdue for a “return to calm.”
“Low-sensory in-person and online experiences are the future,” she said. “Retailers need to get back to the humanity of shopping.”
The New Class Divide in Shopping
The conversation inevitably turned to inequality — and the hollowing out of the middle class.
“Retailers are feeling the effects of economic asymmetry,” said Patton, citing data showing the top 10% of households account for 50% of retail spending.
Consumers are gravitating toward two extremes: $22 smoothies at Erewhon on one end, private-label goods at Aldi on the other. “We’ve lost the middle,” said Shoulberg. “And that’s one of the great tragedies.”
The panel noted a bifurcation in retail strategy. Some brands chase premium experiences (see: Whole Foods’ “Daily Shop” format), while others double down on off-price and discount formats.
The Retail Crime Wave and Associate Protection
If 2025 brought automation to the back office, it brought something uglier to the front of house: escalating violence and theft.
Retail crime surged — but few arrests followed. “Only one in 48 reported shoplifting incidents results in arrest,” Glasheen noted. “And most aren’t even reported.”
The burden has fallen unfairly on associates. “You can’t expect store associates to be your loss prevention team,” said Cohen. Lempert pointed to stores like Hy-Vee, which posted armed guards to deter crime. The question now is how to balance safety with welcoming environments, especially for next-gen consumers already dealing with mental health strain.
What’s Ahead in 2026?
Looking ahead to 2026, the retail industry faces a complex mix of economic headwinds and shifting consumer dynamics. Several panelists anticipate a significant downturn, with Mark Cohen forecasting a full-blown recession by Q3, while Warren Shoulberg warns the true cost of tariffs will come due midyear. At the same time, Jasmine Glasheen predicts a continued pivot toward lifestyle branding, as retailers seek emotional resonance with increasingly fragmented audiences. Climate change will also take center stage, particularly in grocery, where Phil Lempert expects persistent food inflation driven not just by policy but by environmental strain. In short, 2026 is shaping up to be a test of resilience — where adaptability, empathy, and operational discipline will define who thrives and who falters.
