The holiday season is often a make-or-break sales period for many companies, large and small, especially those in retail, travel, and hospitality industries. With inflation fears and global unrest, there are many unknowns this year that may influence consumer optimism and actual spending.
“Retail overall is projected to be up slightly this holiday season with online retail sales growing and in-store sales climbing. Beauty retailers are forecast to be the winners this holiday season.”
To help with scenario planning, a Holiday Spending Forecast, produced by Commerce Signals, uses a permission and anonymized view of consumer spending that includes both Visa and Mastercard, credit and debit for 40 million households. Comprehensive predictions include key behaviors and sectors to guide decision-making.
- Discretionary vs. non-discretionary spending
- Mass, warehouse, discount, and department stores
- Fashion, beauty, sporting goods, and home
- Travel, restaurant, hospitality, cruise, and airlines
Holiday Retail Overview
Order the report to see how retail overall is projected to be up slightly this holiday season with online retail sales growing and in-store sales climbing. Beauty retailers are forecast to be the winners this holiday season, and mass merchants and warehouse clubs are predicted to increase. Consumers want more bang for their buck given the decrease in disposable income, so this increase is to be expected.
Department stores and consumer electronics are also predicted to increase. Grocery store spending is predicted to increase, and grocery shoppers will continue to trade down and buy fewer items due to food price inflation.
Categories that are predicted to not fare so well include home, liquor, beer, wine, and sporting goods.
Predictive Box Scores: Positive and Negative
The report details how total consumer card holiday spending is forecasted to increase over 2022 as a continuation of trends where consumers continue to outspend inflation despite many predictions that interest rate increases would slow down the economy.
In the major shift in consumer spending with out-of-home experiences on the rise, it stands to reason that Americans are prioritizing those experiences and their spending on home categories will decline.
Stay Ahead of the Curve
Get all the data and analytics on holiday 2023 to see where your business stands. Get all the data and analysis by downloading your own report here [https://www.commercesignals.com/holiday-spending-forecast-2023/] to learn more about these predictions, additional category forecasts, and the methodology.
Note: Commerce Signals is a Robin Report Collaborative Partner.