Every year numerous analysts, forecasters, pundits and prognosticators attempt to predict an upcoming holiday’s retail performance. Typically, modest increases in sales are forecast. But what is it about this holiday, Holiday 2025, that may turn out to be very different?

• What effect will sharply rising unemployment have on consumer spending?
• What effect will sharply rising retail prices, driven by Trump’s precipitous and erratic trade war, have on consumer spending?
• What effect will lack of availability of merchandise, again driven by a precipitous and erratic trade war, have on retail sales?
• What effect will the specter of sharply increased health care costs in 2026 have on holiday 2025 spending?

Where will consumers shop this holiday and what will they buy? Will they buy seasonal and fashionable merchandise as they have in the past, or will they bias their purchases toward basic and commodity products? Will they move sharply down market as they did during Covid in 2020 and the 2008 recession? If the consumer outlook remains increasingly pessimistic, and, their disposable income this holiday is significantly impaired, what will that mean for total holiday sales?

In my opinion, retailers whose year-to-date performance has been positive like Costco, Walmart and Amazon among others will be fine. Poorly performing retailers like Macys, Kohls, JC Penney Target, and Saks Global, however, will continue to struggle as they have all year long. Prognosticators will have a much harder time this year accurately predicting outcomes this holiday. By Mark Cohen