I recently spent some time looking 25 years into the future of retailing. Coincidentally, I played this game almost 25 years ago, exactly. I think it was July of 1989 when I was an executive at the May Department Stores Company. We were operating 19 department store names, two discounters (Caldor and Venture), 26 shopping centers, and a couple of specialty stores, including Payless ShoeSource, 25 years ago. As we looked at the future then, we certainly missed the rise of online sales and mobile devices. We correctly guessed that there would only be one national name in the department store space, and we even guessed that the name of that store would be Macy’s. We missed that we would not own it.
We correctly guessed that Walmart would own discounting and we divested both Caldor and Venture because of that. (Both subsequently went broke.) We also thought that the discount store was going to own the $10-a-pair shoe business even though we owned that business with Payless ShoeSource in 1989. We divested Payless in 1996. We guessed that Ralph Lauren, Jones New York and Liz Claiborne would be the biggest vendors in the department store world in 2014. But in the reverse order! Only Ralph is still a winner.
We saw the rise of the specialty store, but it was well under way by 1989 and not that hard to see. We missed the success of the off-price sector and the outlets. We thought both were a side show that would have limited success. [Read more…]