Caracas Lost Dreams

The Robin ReportI noted more than a few binoculars focused this morning on the military airfield outside my Caracas hotel. It’s likely they were searching the ground for evidence of the military coup I heard whispers about last night in the hotel bar; but who knows in Caracas. Even the journalist interviewing me this morning made reference to the challenges of living in a Communist country; Venezuela is in midst of crisis. The recently botched election recalls the passionate controversy of George Bush’s results in Florida in 2004, except it’s unimaginably worse.

In 2013, I can’t think of a well-grounded leftist intellectual that can defend actualization of the Karl Marx syndrome we witnessed in the 20th Century. Russia, the former Soviet Republics, and Eastern Europe have all moved on. By most gauges, shedding this ideology has brought improvement and positive change. Poland grew faster last year than any other nation in Europe, which in the midst of our recession may not be saying much, but still says a lot. Of the three Asian remnants of Communist ideology, China and Vietnam have cherry-picked through Das Kapital and added doses of Confucian and Keynesian economics to craft some semblance of prosperity. North Korea has abandoned all logical thought; the only question is how much of the rest of the world they intend to take with them when they go.

Yet dear reader, this is a newsletter about retail, so here is our thread. In my trip to the supermarket in Caracas this afternoon, there was no coffee of any variety on the shelf, and the reek of rotting meat was stomach turning. People wait in long disorganized lines for basic food supplies. We are witness to the tragedy of governmental pricing control for food; Venezuela has gone from an exporter of food to an importer over the course of its Chavezian transformation. Today, much of its basic food needs are imported from the United States.

My economist colleagues predict that global food prices will increase country by country by 10% to 20% over the next year. While the precise number is anyone’s guess, it’s a fact that food costs are increasing by at least twice the rate that global wages increase. How are we going to continue to feed ourselves?

The answer, in part, rests in the world of retail where for almost 30 years we have watched a concerted effort to engineer both value and fair profits from the supply chain. From growing, to trucking, to minimizing waste and mechanizing the modern warehouse, the degree to which the increased costs of basic food commodities have been passed on to the consumer have been limited for us living in First World nations. Thank Walmart, Tesco and Auchan; but also thank the farmers markets, the slow food movement, and the advent of local community-supported agriculture (CSA) organizations.

At both ends of the First World retail spectrum, we are watching innovation and reinvention driven by competition and local entrepreneurship. At best, we ask government to get out of the way. We’d rather have the local farmers market manager certify a farmer’s products than the FDA, although we need to embrace both in the flawed, but preferable, world of Capitalism.

Journalists keep asking me –- whether it’s here or in Shanghai —how are we going to feed ourselves in the next five years, both from the standpoint of cost and safety? My answer is always the same: Price controls are not the answer, but organized retail can, and will, do its part. The process takes time, but it does work. The places that will feel the most pain over the five years are those where global organized retail is not playing a transformational role in a local economy. India is a prime example. Open markets provide incentive and examples for local merchant organizations to do it often better and faster. They provide farmers with stable prices, drastically cut down on spoilage, and most importantly, help get their offerings on dinner tables everywhere while making a profit.

When I arrived at Simón Bolívar International, I was expecting a sturdy intelligence officer with a serious face to meet me at passport control. I did not expect the smiling young woman with braces that giggled when I presented my thick, well-worn passport. She greeted me warmly after a long flight, stamped my passport and let me pass, welcoming me to her country. She deserves better.

“I’m Dying to Make Your T-shirt For You”

chain_of_supply_RR

What’s Wrong With That Statement?

Am I wrong to be disgusted over the blatant irresponsibility of some of the largest retailers and apparel brands in the world, as well as the governments and factory owners in the countries sought for the lowest possible manufacturing costs? Not to mention their collective and total disregard of the horrific working conditions; “slave labor” compensation; indeed the very lives of those making the world’s precious apparel? I will answer for you. Not only am I right, we should all be disgusted.

But let me be clear. I am singling out those brands and retailers who have far too long “kicked the can down the road,” avoiding direct responsibility for dealing with a “slave-like” process, albeit a very complicated one. Why am I singling them out, and detaching them from the fraudulent and corrupt governments and businesses they must deal with? Because at the end of the day, it is their supply chain. They control it. They own it. And, they are the only entity in the whole rotten process that has the clout to correct it.

Some are doing it right, and you know who you are. Many have not done anything about it, or at best deferred direct responsibility, and you know who you are.

So, for those of you who have “passed the buck,” “turned a blind eye,” and generally stuffed it down on your priority list, I am “in your face” about your supply chain. And yes, it is your supply chain!

At the beginning of your supply chain there are people literally dying to make your stuff for you, for as little compensation as their greedy factory bosses can get away with. Why? Just so they can subsist at some groveling level, so that you, at the other end of your supply chain, can make a fortune and continue to subsist in “opulence” (certainly a lifestyle beyond what that groveling worker can even imagine). And let’s not forget how attached at the hip you are to your compulsively addicted, and excessively consumptive consumer, who just wants more, more, and more for me, me, me — and oh yes, cheaper, cheaper, and cheaper.

And I don’t have to tell you that in order to continue to give more and cheaper to that consumer, while still maintaining your wonderful lifestyle — and, oh yes, giving Wall Street what it demands — somebody has to take the fall and give more for less somewhere in your supply chain. And where might that be? Just think about the now 1100 dead, plus the injured, disabled, and their extended families now living in horror in Bangladesh. And then think about what the greedy, fraudulent, corrupt, criminal bosses and politicians do to do to keep up their lifestyles by promising to give you “more for less,” regardless of what it takes to make that happen.

Disgusting? It’s beyond disgusting. And, I declare it is your supply chain even though you may share those poor workers with other major brands and retailers.

And while I’m at it, I’m also sick of hearing about how we lift up these third-world economies by importing billions of dollars of stuff, which in turn provides jobs for their poverty-level populace, thus creating a virtuous cycle of growth. Growth for whom? Growth for the bosses and politicians I described above, riding on “the backs” of cheap labor. Indeed, in harsh reality, it’s a vicious cycle of depression and death for those of least value to your supply chain – the workers.

It’s Your Supply Chain – Only You Can Do Something About It

So, I really have no interest in reading or hearing about consortiums, NGOs, and big gatherings of “Mr. Bigs” to figure out what to do about this horrific situation. We know where “designs by committee” end up; much less, committees that are made up, and largely led by, the very same people who have caused this disastrous situation in the first place — and whose interests benefit from keeping this as status quo.

At the end of the day, it is your supply chain, period. So, do something about it on your own. Get “feet on the ground” where this horror is playing out, and do the right thing by forcing those at the beginning of your supply chain to do the right thing. And then keep your people on the ground to enforce it.

And if the bosses don’t adhere to your demands, just plain fire them, as you would any other employee that doesn’t work by the rules. YOU are the money train for the entire supply chain. Only YOU can make the right thing happen. If costs go up and you lose a few bucks on the bottom line, at least you may be saving a life at the very beginning of your supply chain.

So, do the right thing! Or, go live with yourself in a dark closet somewhere filled with clothes made by “slave labor.”

Thinking Beyond the Box

250px-Incredible_UniverseThe Incredible Universe was…well, pretty incredible. There was no store like it ever before – and there’s not likely to be one like it ever again.

For those of you who have gone through retail remembrance reprogramming, a quick history lesson: During the 1990s, which in hindsight represented the full-tilt zenith of big box retailing, superstore chains were exploding. Be it home improvement, home furnishings, computers or consumer electronics, big boxes were multiplying at geometric proportions.

And the biggest box of them all was Incredible Universe, which was a dramatic new retail platform from the folks who ran some of the smallest boxes out there, Radio Shack. Current management at the time – who can remember back that far – decided to out-box everyone else out there and go for broke. The first Incredible Universe opened just off Old Country Road in Westbury on New York’s Long Island, which with the exception of Paramus, New Jersey and Schaumburg, Illinois, is about the most concentrated retail location in the country.

The store was well over 150,000-square feet, if memory serves me well, and featured just about every conceivable product with a plug that existed at the time. And considering this was well before iWhatevers, that was a whole lot of TVs, stereos and toasters. Every shopper got a personal identity card that promised all sorts of digital delights. There were salespeople in snappy uniforms as far as the eye could see. It truly was incredible.

It was also way, way too much. Shoppers were overwhelmed and they ended up underbuying. The Universe as we knew it soon failed to exist.

Fast forward a couple of retail generations to today’s reigning – by process of elimination, it has to be noted – big box player in consumer electronics retailing: Best Buy. We’re not here to go through all of Best Buy’s problems. Frankly, the Robin Report website doesn’t have that much bandwidth. But among the leading issues the retailer faces is that its physical stores are just too big. Talk to anybody who follows retailing and they’ll tell you that the problems of too many stores in the country is only matched by the problem of too-big stores.

And Best Buy has got it the worst. Unlike a Home Depot or a Lowes, which need those tens of thousands of square feet of space for tools and aluminum siding, Best Buy has more space than it knows what to do with. Let’s face it, nobody has bought a CD or DVD in a store since the Bush administration. So, as Best Buy was on the leading edge of the big box movement it may also be in the forefront of the next trend in superstore retailing: Not-So-Big Boxes.
Yes, the DIY twins need that floor space, but does Bed Bath & Beyond or Staples or Office Max require stores that large? What about giant furniture stores like Rooms To Go or Raymour & Flanigan? And does it end there? What about off-pricers like the MarMaxx group? What about supermarket? And ultimately, what about the biggest big boxes of them all, Walmart and Target?

If, as some people predict, anywhere from 30% to 50% of general merchandise sales will eventually be done online, does that mean we are in the final stages of Big Box retailing? Does it mean that, in the end, the big box will be outdone by the small carton?

Warren Shoulberg is editorial director for several Sandow Media home furnishings business publications and is glad he was there for the big box era.

How Do Changes in Brand Loyalty Shift Marketing Responsibilities?

The Robin REportSupermarket retailers are facing a sea change when it comes to how the products they sell are marketed. That responsibility is going to migrate from manufacturers to the retailers themselves before too long.

Why? Because supermarket shoppers are a fickle bunch. And nowhere is that more evident than in their fast-changing attitudes toward brands and their loyalty to them — or, to be more precise, their lack of brand loyalty.

Of course, brand loyalty has been fading for a long time, but for the first time, surveys of motivations behind consumer buying decisions show that a large majority of supermarket shoppers have no brand preference at all. Instead, they are prone to swing between brands, or to opt equally for specialty or store brands.

Several newly issued consumer studies show how dramatic the decline in brand loyalty is. For instance, Deloitte’s American Pantry Study shows that 90% of shoppers at least occasionally will opt for a store brand in lieu of a national brand. That finding is backed by other surveys that indicate a striking 56% of shoppers have no brand loyalty at all.

This lack of brand loyalty gives national manufacturers of consumer packaged goods (CPG) every reason to feel agita. It also means that manufacturers soon won’t have the wherewithal to do all the heavy lifting concerning product promotion.

So, if manufacturers soon won’t promote as effectively, who will? Well, the only player left is the retailer.

Here’s some of what retailers will have to do better on their own:

  • Seize the product-development initiative from national CPG manufacturers. No longer should store brands mimic national brands in content or appearance. Instead, store brands should be high-quality and attractively packaged products in their own right. They should be priced near, or even above, similar national brands’ price points. Supermarkets can also lift a page from Target’s playbook by offering tiers of store brand product ranging from value offerings to high end.
  • Make the supermarket stand for something. It should be conspicuous to shoppers that the store means, say, quality, innovative products, or price. Limited assortment operators including Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s and Aldi, respectively, already do this. Or, like Target, supermarkets can stand for “cheap chic.”
  • Make the supermarket an inviting destination so customers will want to go there instead of viewing shopping as drudgery. That means the supermarket must have high-quality perishables departments, be convenient to shop, and feature high service levels. Supermarket operators Wegmans and Publix already do a good job of this.

Even with those basics under their belts, supermarkets still will face a few challenges. That’s because consumer studies show that huge majorities of shoppers are looking for quality products throughout the store — up to 75% of shoppers say that is what they have in mind.

And, just to complicate things, many shoppers make buying decisions on the basis of whim or desire rather than more rational-seeming reasons.
Finally, retailers must market with this conflicting mandate in mind: shoppers still demand reasonable price points.

Now let’s return to the original issue of the decline of brand loyalty. A multitude of reasons have contributed to the phenomenon, but the longest-running factor is the migration of mass media toward niche media. There was a time when brand owners could blanket the consciousness of consumers with a few strategic ad buys in broadcast and print media. Those days are long gone.

Other factors include consumers’ growing awareness that food and health are intertwined. Consumers also are on constant lookout for new and attractively designed products; some 20% of shoppers seek new-product alternatives during every store trip. Neither of these factors cater to CPGs strong suit.

In the end, maybe it’s just as well that mass marketing is disappearing and consumers are more assertive about what products they want. Retailers using new media to cater to small groups of like-minded consumers or even individual consumers have in their hands the means to present to shoppers just what they’re seeking.

Why All the Fuss About Martha?

MarthaStewartJC Penney, now JCP, and Macy’s are at war over Martha Stewart. The Appeals Court ruled recently that Penney could sell Martha Stewart product temporarily, but, not under the Martha Stewart brand name. The question of why the now-departed JCP CEO and former Apple and Target superstar, Ron Johnson, and the lifestyle guru and home goddess, Martha Stewart, agreed on a relationship under the umbrella of the existing Macy’s contract – kind of like having two husbands or wives at the same time – is best left to other experts. But the question of why all the fuss about Martha, why two major and competing retailers are willing to fight for her, goes well beyond the legal challenges. It goes simply to the strength of the Martha Stewart brand which is arguably the leading non-apparel brand in the country, perhaps rivaling only Ralph Lauren in the strength of its conviction, equity, vision and imprimatur of its founder, the inspiration providing, Non-Executive Chairman, and, convicted felon, Martha Stewart. [Read more...]

Innovators Unite!

kennethwalker“I told you so” seems to be the rallying cry of all the retail pundits out there who think they were smarter than Ron Johnson.

Every one is throwing stones and is offering multiple reasons for what went wrong at JCPenney. The reasons for failure are easy to categorize, and I sense a bunker mentality is settling over the retail community.

Beware.

In a business where real change comes very infrequently, the danger of the JCP fiasco may be the end of trying to do anything innovative. Many companies try and fail, but learn their lessons and bounce back by trying again.  The worst thing JCP can do is to go backwards to the status quo.

The vision Ron Johnson brought to the table was revolutionary.  The execution in hindsight was clearly flawed. Unfortunately very few people even got to experience what “the vision” was, as few elements were completed. It could have been a game changer for the retail community.

Current JCP management has a very focused and talented leader. The key investors in the company are smart and have the future in mind.  I hope this team will execute properly and harness the vision and innovation that Johnson began.   It would create a sorely needed new, and unique, customer experience.

Shoppers are always looking for something new. If they try it and like it, they will come back and tell others.   Word of mouth has a very big mouth…it’s called twitter and Facebook, Instagram, Pinterest, and the rest of them.

The poor execution of a vision should not be an excuse to abandon innovation.

Stagnant Paychecks Slow Consumer Spending

iStock_000007732207XSmallLower Prices on Food and Energy Buoy Fashion Products

You know those colorful Vikings in the Capital One credit card commercials who ask “What’s in your wallet?” Well, maybe they’re asking the wrong question.

Forget QE3, the wealth effect from rising stock prices, and fears of sequestration. The key factor in determining consumer spending, that all-important measure that comprises a whopping 70% of GDP growth, is paycheck size. It’s about how much is in consumers’ wallets. And with paychecks essentially stagnant, it could come as no surprise that economic growth is pathetic, too. [Read more...]

Hey Computer! How Do I Really Look?

computer“Hi Renee. The tank top you bought last time is on sale. You should check them out,” says the holographic image of a perky sales associate as she walks into the store.

As she tries one on, another “sales assistant” appears in the corner of the fitting room’s full-length mirror. “We got new jeans that would look great with that top (a picture of the item appears). Just tap the image and I’ll show you how they’ll look.”

Welcome to the world of “Augmented Reality,” the convergence of personal shopping, robotics, smartphone and information technology that makes the barcode look like a cave drawing. But this isn’t the stuff of science fiction. Augmented reality of one kind or another is being tested everywhere from Abu Dhabi to London to Tokyo. It has the potential to reshape the in-store experience and even make online shopping, as we know it, obsolete. [Read more...]

Private Labels, Public Nuisances, and Captured Moments

rr_3-13_private_labelAll the recent hubbub over a certain Connecticut homemaker’s image and brand is only the tip of a major merchandising movement that is starting to consume the home furnishings field. As national brands continue to recede from the category—they are pretty much null and void in soft home categories, like sheets and towels, and hold a tenuous position at best in some smallappliance and housewares classifications—the ascendency of private and captured brands is nearing unprecedented levels.

The spectrum goes from the extreme of Kohl’s where virtually the entire home department is proprietarily branded, to stores like Target, and now Penney, where soft home is all private and hard home is mostly national brands—to ones like Macy’s and Bed Bath & Beyond where the assortments are still…well, assorted. [Read more...]

The Human Metric: Activating a Customer-Centric Organization

metrics_CIn my previous article, I discussed how traditional metrics—like comp sales performance—often work against retailers in their efforts to improve store performance. Continuing that conversation, we now take a look at how customer-centric metrics empower corporate leaders, field leaders, store managers, and individual associates to more proactively help their customers buy more and more often with a higher sense of satisfaction through quality in-store interactions.

Defining “What Right Looks Like”

Let’s face it. Retail is a highly emotional business. The best retailers have found ways to create a certain magical shopping environment—every day and in every store—through artful store layout, creative in-store design, and innovative product placement that energizes the buying emotions of their customers. Consistent replication of this store environment is typically ensured by a quantitative, detailed, and specific definition of “what right looks like”—rigid standards on product assortment, signage, and other visual merchandising standards that collectively define the emotional in-store experience.

Emotion isn’t just a customer phenomenon, however. It is mirrored by the other human element in the retail equation—store teams. The way a skilled manager-on-duty and store associates guide the customer through the store with a personal touch is perhaps the most important element in creating memorable experiences. Yet many retailers feel this human interaction is immeasurable, unlike product mix and merchandising. [Read more...]

Amazon Frightened the Behemoth And It Boomeranged

The Robin ReportThat would be the Walmart behemoth, still the one and only behemoth of its size in the world, the last I took count.  At about $61 billion in annual revenues, Amazon is still a puny contender to Walmart’s nearly $500 billion.  But, relatively puny as they might be, they scared the pants off Walmart several years ago when it was rumored they were about to open brick-and-mortar stores.

And although the behemoth did not heed FDR’s advice: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” It was a good thing that they did not. Because if they had not feared Amazon’s rumored move, Bertrand Russell’s quote would not have been so prescient to Walmart’s management: “To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom.”

If not solely due to a reaction to Amazon, Walmart nevertheless got wise real fast. And they got wise in how they viewed the future of retailing and their participation in it. In other words, the paradigm was shifting in Bentonville, and still is. And now it should be Amazon who is shaking in fear.

The Scenario

I believe the fear led to some epiphanies in the management ranks down in Bentonville.  Seeing the future more clearly, I think they looked at their business model and said, “hey guys, we’ve been stuck in our paradigm of the past: a store is a store is a store.”

In fact, they were so focused on stores being stores, that a few years ago when a top executive at Walmart was asked if the rumor of Amazon opening stores was true, his reply was not a mild, “we’d be concerned,” or even “we’d view that as a serious competitive threat.”  He said, “That is Walmart’s biggest fear,” with the emphasis on “is,” meaning, of course, that there was more fact than fiction smoking out of that rumor.  And indeed, the drums are now beating louder in anticipation of Amazon launching brick-and-mortar stores.

So, what happened in Bentonville was epiphany #1, which caused a complete flip from playing defensive to going on the offense. From a fear of Amazon coming onto their turf with Pentagon-sized consumer data and opening showroom-like stores tailored to local consumer preferences. Walmart, rather than shaking in their boots, awakened to the understanding that they were looking at their business model the old-fashioned way and operating with old-growth strategies, accordingly.

The Epiphany and Newfound Wisdom

Walmart awakened to the fact that a store isn’t a store, and likewise, a website isn’t just a website.  These are not two distinct and discreet businesses.  And more than just seeing its business as an “omnichannel,” that over-worked buzzword, Walmart, in my opinion, cleared the fuzz from their vision and saw their business as being a direct-to-consumer distributor of goods and services.

When viewed as such, they can envision and create all kinds of virtual and real distribution channels and platforms, including smaller neighborhood stores and even potentially operating on competitors’ platforms.  All, of course, must be responsive to wherever, whenever, however and how often the consumer wants to purchase.  So, Walmart then assesses their enormous global enterprise of some 4500 stores and redefines them as distribution centers (as Macy’s and other enlightened retailers have done) where online purchased goods can be picked up or returned.  Additionally, Walmart is still a physical shopping destination, while Amazon has zero stores. And to cite the now well-known fact that shoppers who shop both online and off spend 50% more than those who shop only one channel, just adds a synergy weapon that Amazon lacks.

Viewed through this new lens, those guys in Arkansas have themselves a big chuckle, as they talk about puny little Amazon (no longer the specter of death) scurrying around placing distribution “lockers” in Staples, Rite Aid and others.  Furthermore, Walmart realizes that its online sales of about $9 billion is less than 2% of its total business. And while in absolute numbers, that ranks them second only to Amazon online (in its channel) with its size leverage, including 4500 distribution centers (and stores) to Amazon’s roughly 100 (and zero stores), it also means their opportunity to quickly ramp up, or to “get bigger than Amazon, faster” to use Bezos’ mantra, is enormous.  Should Amazon now be afraid of losing their dominance online?

That said, Bezos calls the start of every day, “Day 1.” He’s truly a genius and if, as predicted in my past article, Amazon launches stores (more as localized “showroom” experiences) and assaults the behemoth in every neighborhood and on the global playing field, the guys in Arkansas will likely stop chuckling.  As pointed out in that article, Amazon’s growth since 2006 was a blistering 300% (while Walmart grew 21% during the same period).

My question at the time, as it is now: “So, how long does it take a $69 billion business, growing at a 300% pace every five years, to reach $500 billion in sales?” You do the math. Answer: it’s about eight years. And, if they synergize the ecommerce business with stores, it might even be sooner.

So, welcome to the heavyweight championship of the world. In one corner, we have the reigning and current champion, the “Behemoth from Bentonville.”  In the other is the smaller and lighter, but feisty and fast, “Amazing Amazon Apocalypse,” who claims to float like a butterfly and sting like a bee. Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets.

The Green Marketing Act

cell phone sales_greenYou got rid of the landline three years ago because two-thirds of your calls were from telemarketers. Then you downgraded your cable service wondering why you were paying so much for so little. Now you watch stuff on your Tablet and laptop more and more. And when the price of a New York Times went up to $2.50, you decided to read news online from a wider variety of sources, and like it decidedly better.

Today, you live a new kind of life than you did five years ago. You have several e-mail addresses so that you can filter the spam. The snail mail is more than 90% junk so you’ve even stopped opening it; the envelope gets a glance and often gets chucked. When you drive, it’s commercial-free Satellite Radio since traditional ads, with their crazy voices and incoherent offerings, drive you crazy. You loved Marc Gobé’s film, This Space Available, downgrading billboards, and outdoor media in general, to visual pollutant status. You take a pleasure in buying the store’s house brand, not because you have to, but because the ‘superiority’ of branded products is something you seriously question. We watch commercials at the Super Bowl and Oscars for the entertainment value and once in a while on YouTube; the rest of the time you conspire to avoid them. [Read more...]