The Red, White & Blue – and Green

CottonplanetThe Cotton Incorporated 2013 Environmental Survey reveals that more than 50% of U.S. consumers identify themselves to be “green”. And, although participation in basic household environmentalism has shown only incremental growth, higher income consumers constitute a markedly greater level of engagement. Survey data indicate that personal income and larger economic concerns are changing the ways in which consumers perceive and participate in environmental activities. Several factors, including a significant increase in consumers’ pursuing apparel made in the U.S.A, and apparel made from natural fibers, suggests that these are emerging as new forms of environmental engagement.

“It is clear that consumers are aware and concerned about the environment,” says Kim Kitchings, VP of Corporate Strategies and Program Metrics at Cotton Incorporated, adding that the majority (60%) of survey respondents say that they often think how their actions affect the environment. “What is less clear to them is the cost of making a difference.”

Kitchings points to five years of data showing that participation in relatively low- or no-cost household environmentalism, including recycling, conserving water, and investing in energy-efficient appliances, is consistently greater among consumers with higher incomes. The divide is also seen in the 34% of consumers who say they put effort into finding environmentally-friendly apparel; that figure jumps to 40% among consumers making $75,000 or more per year. [Read more...]

Caracas Lost Dreams

The Robin ReportI noted more than a few binoculars focused this morning on the military airfield outside my Caracas hotel. It’s likely they were searching the ground for evidence of the military coup I heard whispers about last night in the hotel bar; but who knows in Caracas. Even the journalist interviewing me this morning made reference to the challenges of living in a Communist country; Venezuela is in midst of crisis. The recently botched election recalls the passionate controversy of George Bush’s results in Florida in 2004, except it’s unimaginably worse.

In 2013, I can’t think of a well-grounded leftist intellectual that can defend actualization of the Karl Marx syndrome we witnessed in the 20th Century. Russia, the former Soviet Republics, and Eastern Europe have all moved on. By most gauges, shedding this ideology has brought improvement and positive change. Poland grew faster last year than any other nation in Europe, which in the midst of our recession may not be saying much, but still says a lot. Of the three Asian remnants of Communist ideology, China and Vietnam have cherry-picked through Das Kapital and added doses of Confucian and Keynesian economics to craft some semblance of prosperity. North Korea has abandoned all logical thought; the only question is how much of the rest of the world they intend to take with them when they go.

Yet dear reader, this is a newsletter about retail, so here is our thread. In my trip to the supermarket in Caracas this afternoon, there was no coffee of any variety on the shelf, and the reek of rotting meat was stomach turning. People wait in long disorganized lines for basic food supplies. We are witness to the tragedy of governmental pricing control for food; Venezuela has gone from an exporter of food to an importer over the course of its Chavezian transformation. Today, much of its basic food needs are imported from the United States.

My economist colleagues predict that global food prices will increase country by country by 10% to 20% over the next year. While the precise number is anyone’s guess, it’s a fact that food costs are increasing by at least twice the rate that global wages increase. How are we going to continue to feed ourselves?

The answer, in part, rests in the world of retail where for almost 30 years we have watched a concerted effort to engineer both value and fair profits from the supply chain. From growing, to trucking, to minimizing waste and mechanizing the modern warehouse, the degree to which the increased costs of basic food commodities have been passed on to the consumer have been limited for us living in First World nations. Thank Walmart, Tesco and Auchan; but also thank the farmers markets, the slow food movement, and the advent of local community-supported agriculture (CSA) organizations.

At both ends of the First World retail spectrum, we are watching innovation and reinvention driven by competition and local entrepreneurship. At best, we ask government to get out of the way. We’d rather have the local farmers market manager certify a farmer’s products than the FDA, although we need to embrace both in the flawed, but preferable, world of Capitalism.

Journalists keep asking me –- whether it’s here or in Shanghai —how are we going to feed ourselves in the next five years, both from the standpoint of cost and safety? My answer is always the same: Price controls are not the answer, but organized retail can, and will, do its part. The process takes time, but it does work. The places that will feel the most pain over the five years are those where global organized retail is not playing a transformational role in a local economy. India is a prime example. Open markets provide incentive and examples for local merchant organizations to do it often better and faster. They provide farmers with stable prices, drastically cut down on spoilage, and most importantly, help get their offerings on dinner tables everywhere while making a profit.

When I arrived at Simón Bolívar International, I was expecting a sturdy intelligence officer with a serious face to meet me at passport control. I did not expect the smiling young woman with braces that giggled when I presented my thick, well-worn passport. She greeted me warmly after a long flight, stamped my passport and let me pass, welcoming me to her country. She deserves better.

Community Retail at Scale

rr_3-13_gideon_final-01It’s Not Just Good, It’s Good For Business

No one can argue with the benefits of scale when it comes to retail. Large-scale retailers provide deeper assortments at lower prices than their ma-and-pa competitors. But there’s a problem with all this scaling up. Mass-scale stores have become divorced from the communities where they sit. Most big-box retail stores look like they have been dropped in place by the mothership, and show little connection to where they are. All retail should have a sense of place. Now that we’re used to all those benefits of scale, customers yearn again for the relationships they had with their stores when they were owned and operated by their neighbors. Prediction: the next big wave in brick-and-mortar retail will combine the power of scale with the benefits of old-school mom-and-pop retail relationships. This is the transformation of big-box stores to come. [Read more...]

Land Of Opportunity To Barren Wasteland

rr_3-13_cover“Bubble Capitalism” Crushes the American Dream

Forget the cresting, breaking and other visible economic waves we discern on the surface of our economy — all accompanied by “cyclical” blathering of the dire necessity to create jobs and growth, and reduce debt and deficit spending.

While we blather, we’re blind. The less visible, stronger undercurrents of our dying free market capitalism that catapulted us to global economic dominance with the promise of an “American Dream” along with it, has been morphing into what I’m calling “bubble capitalism.” Some are calling it “crony capitalism,” which is equally descriptive. It’s just that bubbles are what the cronies feed off of. And it is crushing the American Dream by tipping the once-level playing field in favor of a narrowing segment of big finance and big business, aided and abetted by big government.

And let me be crystal clear. I am not whining for redistribution. I’m suggesting that if we don’t figure out a way to get back to good old democratic capitalism and its level playing field, we will have a barren wasteland in our future, albeit one that will be filled with a bunch of worthless stuff (popped bubble residue), scattered across a country that will look more and more like the third world. Think about three million empty, decaying and devalued houses following the leveraged-up mortgage crash of 2008. And what about the jobs lost, and spike in the number of people living below the poverty line?

Sorry, you want nice, you probably won’t find it in the Robin Report. We like to make wake-up calls. [Read more...]

Dispatches

Robin Lewis“What Your Intern Is Really Thinking, “ written by our staff Millennial, Grace Ehlers addresses the seemingly cavalier and misguided view among most companies about her generation, particularly those with college degrees. The article was justifiably critical, in my opinion, of companies assuming that these “best and brightest” of the Millennials should be available for hire as non-compensated “interns.” She has a follow-up article in which she challenges the misconceptions among many companies about the work ethics and career expectations of her generation.

So, as I set forth my argument regarding the deflation and devaluation of our economy and everything in it, due to our shift from value creation to value consumption, exacerbated by our new, “less-free- market” form of capitalism, it struck me how this shift is, and will continue to have perhaps its greatest negative impact on Grace’s generation. Conversely, it also struck me how this shift is wasting this generation as the greatest asset we have, and if given the chance, they might provide the very solution we need to reverse our economic decline.

Here’s the scenario for these Millennials. On totally reverse trajectories we have an economy that is shifting from higher-paying manufacturing jobs, including those in charge of running those companies, who also happen to require higher intelligence and professional skills, to lower-paying service jobs (feeding a consumption economy), and which require a lower set of skills and level of education. So not only fewer jobs, but lower paying jobs that are well beneath the skills of college graduates.

Furthermore, the theory that once we lost our manufacturing base we would simply move up the “food chain,” creating wealth and higher levels of value through innovation, technology and science has been debunked by many economists. In short, engineering, science and technology degrees are being sought less by students instead favoring MBA’s and liberal arts. And, while thousands of foreign students do seek those degrees from our best universities, they are finding it almost impossible (for many reasons) to obtain visas to stay and work in the US. Thus we not only lose their intelligence for these higher “food chain” industries, we are in fact, exporting these industries to China, India and other countries around the world. And, while all of this is happening, more and more young people than ever before have been graduating with college degrees.

However, most of them are heavily in debt for educational loans, (in the aggregate, about $1 trillion, and the percentage of borrowers who are more than 90 days delinquent has risen to 17%, from 10% in 2004). And the number of young Americans without a job has exploded to 53.4% —a post-World War II high, according to the Labor Department.

So, fewer and fewer jobs and more and more educated young people in dire need of jobs, spells tragedy. It is a tragedy because as I said, we are wasting our most valuable asset, the one cohort of our population who, if given a chance, might figure out how to reverse the economic decline.

Stores Blame Cold Weather, Early Easter for Season’s Slow Start

March2013RetSalesRetailing is a lot like professional sports. Both are highly competitive, both require a combination of talent and luck, and both involve big money.

And sometimes, there’s so much drama taking place off the playing field that it’s hard to remember there’s a real game taking place on it.

No matter how interesting we find all the “what if” questions surrounding JCPenney, or the tussle between Martha and Macy’s, or the Lululemon yoga pant recall, it’s what’s going on at the cash registers in the stores – be they brick-and-mortar or online – that determines the success of the industry and, in turn, the U.S. economy. Consumer spending – people shelling out money for goods and services – accounts for 70% of economic growth, and spending at retail just isn’t growing very quickly these days, for a variety of reasons. [Read more...]

Hogwash

iStock_000000315739_ExtraSmallAnd if You Believe It, I “Have a Bridge to Sell You.”

Hogwash is a great word, as I was reminded by my colleague, Judy Russell, CEO of consultancy Markethink. First used in the 15th Century, it referred to swill, slop, nonsense and balderdash. And it’s particularly appropriate when describing the findings of a recent study conducted by none other than the Boston Consulting Group, as well an earlier survey conducted by NPD in the fall of last year.

Up front and to be clear, I am not attaching the “hogwash” description to the methodology, and how the research was conducted by these two revered institutions; and not even the accuracy of the findings. I am describing as “hogwash” what the findings indicate would be consumer behavior in making a purchasing decision based on patriotism and a “made in America” label over price. [Read more...]

Walmart’s Hire-a-Vet Program: Patriotic Gesture? Or Good for Walmart?

American veterans returning from war have had a history of finding employment at Fortune 10 companies. After the Korean War they got engineering and sales jobs at IBM and Texaco. After Vietnam they became production technicians and manufacturing coordinators at Dupont and Monsanto.

Those returning from Iraq and Afghanistan will be working at Walmart. Now that’s what I call economic progress.

At January’s National Retail Federation Convention in New York, CEO and President Bill Simon announced the Bentonville behemoth’s pledge to hire any returning veteran who wants a job, in a program it will kick off on (when else?) Memorial Day. It will result in 100,000 jobs for returning military personnel over the next five years.

This is a wonderfully patriotic gesture, and a great opportunity for all those returning vets, right? Or is it? [Read more...]

Nervous Consumers Go to the Mattresses

Will Clouds Lift in 2013?

Last month, when the Commerce Department released its report on December 2012 personal income, spending and savings, there was barely a mention of it in the usual financial corners – which didn’t faze me much, since these figures are usually nothing to write home about.

After looking at the numbers, however, I did something uncharacteristic: a double-take.

Personal income rose by a whopping 7%, its biggest monthly jump in six years. Great news for retailers, who were offering tempting Holiday price promotions everywhere you looked, right? [Read more...]

Supervalu’s Unsuper Future

SuperValu - The Robin ReportIn its most recent fiscal year it scored $36.1 in sales volume, driven by a widely diverse portfolio of assets. Those assets include a large-scale wholesale business plus many retail stores ranging from small chains of to large-scale retail chains and a hard-discount chain. In all, Supervalu has more than 2,400 stores.

Supervalu’s asset diversity evolved, for the most part, over a period of cautious and self-financed growth spanning its 135-year history. The company is based in Minneapolis, but operates from distribution centers in nearly 30 states, effectively blanketing much of the nation.

But there are big problems under the surface. When Supervalu is brought into sharp focus, it starts to look troubling. Clarity reveals it to be currently heavily laden with unaccustomed debt and its profitability long sinking and now vanishing.

It gets worse. Its competitive positioning is melting away and its corporate-management team is in fast-turn mode. Supervalu stock is trading near the $2-mark, except for an occasional upward spike driven by buyout rumors. Earlier this year, its stock sold for about $8; five years ago it approached $45. [Read more...]

Getting a Return on Post-Holiday Returns

As a merchant, you’ve watched holiday shopping seasons come and go, and you’re well aware that in the last few years, consumer spending behavior has been through radical changes. It’s been a slow recovery since the precipitous drop in holiday spending in 2008. The excessive pre-holiday stocking of inventory and concomitant mad spending seem to be bygones.

Savvy retailer that you are, you’ve become very smart at balancing inventory with sales, and you’ve planned inventory very carefully this season. You’ve made well-informed estimates of consumers demand for the upcoming holiday season. According to industry analysts, this year’s second quarter saw the slowest inventory growth in the U.S. since 2009, and in light of that, you probably don’t have huge concerns about overstocking. Nevertheless, when you placed those orders into your suppliers’ line months ago, the world was a different place.

Which gets us to this point  one thing that hasn’t changed, and it’s almost as certain as death and taxes, is that there will still be a flurry of post-holiday returns and exchanges coming back through your doors come December 26th. How will you handle them?

As you’ve kept your stock lean and mean this year, there’s already a much more highly specialized collection of merchandise coming back than in previous years. While in prior years, these returns have always stretched your customer service goodwill to its limits, this year, and in this uncertain economy, you’re a little concerned about how to handle returned merchandise. [Read more...]

How Do You Give People What They Want?

The Robin Report

Click to See Chart Full-Sized

The Global Recession has left retailers with overstuffed inventories and rapidly declining margins, as cash-strapped consumers pulled back on all but the most necessary of purchases. In response, some retailers have revamped the consumer experience with a variety of strategies, from flashy celebrity endorsements and hefty back-to-school discounts, to new pricing strategies and a more holistic approach to in-store versus online.

But are any of these giving consumers what they really want?

Leveraging the power of celebrity appeal is a popular tactic that shows no signs of slowing. Ann Taylor recently announced that Kate Hudson will continue to be their spokesperson for the third year running, while H&M recently revealed its continuing partnership with David Beckham.

Despite the prevalence of star-powered promotion, 3% of consumers cite celebrities as being most likely to influence them to purchase new apparel, though 22% say clothing worn by celebrities is still influential in their own clothing choices, according to the Cotton Incorporated Lifestyle Monitor™ Survey. Most say (53%) friends are the most influential source in their purchasing decisions. [Read more...]