The Bottom Is Near: Thanks to the Millennials

three girls chatting with their smartphones at the parkIt came in with a bang! And it will end with a whimper. I’m talking about the now over-used phrase “the race to the bottom” of price promoting and every method of discounting imaginable and unimaginable. It explosively ramped up around the turn of the century, accelerated through the recession, mainlined on steroids post-recession, and is now limping to its end. This is not a Ron Johnson-like prediction when he bet the bank during his brief and tragic tenure as CEO of JC Penney (and which I naively doubled-down on). I now believe he may have been ahead of his time believing that “fair and square” non-promotional pricing would be desired by consumers. Of course, the JC Penney customers not only didn’t love it, they hated it and walked out the door.

Well that was a different time and a different customer.

The Millennials are going to change it all. They are viewing the industry’s discount madness as an overwhelming, frustrating, and exhausting “paradox of choice” (too many deals and too confusing to even make a choice). They will not only become inured to the onslaught of ubiquitous deals 24/7, they will begin to disbelieve them and cynically expect that another better deal will pop up at any moment – which they will also not trust. How can they believe what the real value of any offering is at this point? [Read more…]

What’s Missing From Online Shopping

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Last year, US e-retail sales hit $263 billion, according to Forrester Research Inc., representing 8% of total retail sales. The company predicts that by 2018, e-retail will reach $414 billion. While it’s a staggering number, it will still only account for about 11% of total retail sales. So why is online shopping still such a small piece of the retail pie? According to research from Cotton Incorporated, there’s room for improvement online.

Browse Before Buying

Though the majority of purchases still occur in-store, online is quickly becoming the first stop for consumers looking to shop for apparel. According to the Cotton Incorporated Lifestyle Monitor™ Survey, 84% of consumers say they browse for clothing online using a computer or laptop, while 45% say they use a smart phone, 39% use a tablet, and 18% use a smart television.

“We’ve seen strong growth in the percentage of consumers who browse for clothing online using smartphones, tablets, and smart televisions, and we anticipate those numbers will continue to grow as they reflect the behavior of younger consumers who were raised with the technology and are increasingly comfortable with it,” says Kim Kitchings, Vice President, Corporate Strategy & Program Metrics, Cotton Incorporated.

Indeed, according to Forrester Research Inc., 69% of US adults who regularly purchase items online end up buying about 16% of their products through e-channels, and both numbers are expected to grow as so-called “digital natives,” or those consumers born in the early 2000s after the advent of digital technologies, continue to increase their spending power. [Read more…]

Millennials in the Workplace

Stocksy_txpd54be8a1J9B000_Medium_228670Maude Standish, Trends Analyst, Millennial, and Co-Founder of Tarot, tracks cultural trends and sociological back-stories of Millennials, particularly how they view and behave in the workplace in an inter-generational workforce. To put their worldview into perspective, here are the Top Five Myths About Millennials, notably held most often by Boomers—their parents!

1. Myth: They Only Want to Be Famous

Reality: Selfies aside, Millennials are building their personal brands by documenting and commenting on their lives as they live them. They actually prioritize family and friends higher than fame. They have been exposed to a world in which fame is a double-edged sword, and fleeting at best.

2. Myth: All Millennials Are Lazy

Reality: Just because it looks like they are online all the time, whatever screen of choice, they are not lazy. Millennials are on their Grind. They work long hours. They check in online vigilantly, both professionally and personally. They are constantly planning for the future. Most Millennials have a day job and are also into some entrepreneurial business they are creating on the side.

3. Myth: They All Leave After Two Years

Reality: They all leave after two years. They leave because they didn’t see a clear career pathway to the future with the company; there was no room for creativity; there was not enough flexibility in the workplace; or they were looking for a mentor and did not find one.

4. Myth: They Are Never Really Working

Reality: They draw no lines between leisure time and work time. Millennials demand balance in their lives. So for example, seamlessly alternating between Facebook and work is a way to squeeze in personal fulfillment to balance the demands of their jobs.

5. Myth: They Have No Loyalty

Reality: Millennials have trust Issues. The recession hit, their parents were losing their pension packages, and their homes were taken. If you give them reasons to trust you—benefits, mentorship, clear examples of career paths in the firm—they will become fiercely loyal.

Some Ah-Ha Insights

  • Millennials never have to leave friends behind because of social media and online connections
  • 6 out of 10 Millennial college graduates are women
  • They are fiscally conservative because they did everything they were told, but then few jobs were available to them when they graduated, and as a result they have trust issues.
  • They are not lazy and entitled, but rather they want to be rewarded for their Grind.
  • There are more Millennials than Baby Boomers.
  • No one, no matter how old, likes to be told “you have to do it this way…”
  • The reason most Millennials think and act the way they do is because they’re YOUNG! They think and act just the way everyone else did at the same age.
  • Headphones now are replacing office doors.

Coty Sinks In Its Claws

shutterstock_152473550When it comes to spending sprees, November 2010 was a doozy for Coty, Inc. In rapid succession, the New York-based, publicly held global powerhouse scooped up the German makeup company Dr. Scheller Cosmetics AG for an undisclosed amount; the touchy-feely Philosophy skincare brand from the Carlyle Group for an estimated $1 billion; and OPI, the pro nail care line famous for lacquers with cheeky names like “Skull & Glossbones” and “Wooden Shoe Like to Know,” for another (rumored) $1 billion.

At the time of those purchases, Coty, then a $3.6 billion entity, was billing itself as the world’s largest fragrance company. By rounding out its portfolio with these brands, the plan was to reduce its reliance on the recession-plagued perfume biz, carve off a bigger slice of Germany’s beauty pie, and inch toward its stated goal of $7 billion in revenue by 2015.

While it would be hard to argue which was the splashier score— Philosophy or OPI, both of which are wildly beloved by consumers— the latter allowed Coty to not only tap an entirely new distribution channel, but also expand its foothold in the supernova that was nails circa 2010. [Read more…]

Sleepless Nights

mattress isolated on the whiteI am not sure about where you live, but around here in southeastern Pennsylvania, it seems like wherever I drive, I am never far away from a mattress store, and a discount one at that.

It makes me wonder how these stores can keep their lights on. Can there really be that many people in this community of half a million that, give or take, need a new bed? I don’t have the answer for the mushrooming growth of retail banks, but do I understand Americans have been buying mattresses in record numbers making the mattress category the fastest growing segment in the $164.4 billion home furnishings business in 2012, according to HFN’s State of the Industry report. In 2013, the mattress segment posted slower but still good growth to reach $9.4 billion.

Mattress Madness

Obviously Americans are sleeping better—or at least investing in record numbers in better beds. And with recent double-digit growth in the category, mattress retailers are trying to squeeze every bit of spring out of the mattress business. Sleepy’s tops out at over 900 stores, and 1800Mattress.com gives ‘showrooming’ mattress shoppers access to deep discounts for most of the leading brands. The leading television channels and even Walmart are getting in on retailing beds. [Read more…]

Retailers and Wholesalers: Yesterday’s Fish Wrap

Direct_to_consumerThe retail and wholesale business models, separately and in conjunction with each other, are collapsing. Along with their demise, the actual terms, retail and wholesale, will literally cease to exist. In fact, as I write this article, major traditional wholesale brands such as The North Face, Timberland and other VF Corporation brands, along with PVH brands, Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, among many other giant wholesale brands, are achieving faster and more profitable growth in what they are referring to as their DTC (direct to consumer, including e-commerce) business, than through their traditional wholesale to retail to consumer model. Essentially the DTC model that these wholesale brands are adopting is simply the branded apparel specialty retail model that was launched by the Gap, Esprit and other brands in the 1960s. A phrase often used to describe the model is “the brand on the door is the brand in the store.” Likewise, and to some degree in response to their branded wholesale vendors’ accelerating focus on the DTC model, traditional retailers — from Nordstrom and Macy’s to Walmart –- and across all retail sectors, will be forced to transform their business models to better control and accelerate their own brands’ direct engagement with consumers. In fact, Nordstrom and Macy’s, to cite two examples, are proactively beginning to transform their models. [Read more…]

Are You Trapped in the Past?

shutterstock_176490206Think you are a Retail Guru? Student of the Industry? Current or former Master or Mistress of the Universe? Or have you just been around the business for at least 25 years? Well, wherever you were in 1989, were you capable of foreseeing what retail would be like in 2014? Some of you who were part of the industry in 1964 may in fact still be alive and kicking. If you are a member of that rarified group, did you envision then any of the changes that have occurred in our industry over these past 50 years?

Change is a concept that most of us say we understand and readily embrace. Yet, in reality, we have little or no capacity to conceive of, plan in support of, or manage change.

Past as Prelude

In 1964, retail was principally focused on downtown business districts in either overlarge emporium like local department stores and/or mega-catalog houses. Downtown specialty retail was invariably local. Few, if any, shopping malls existed; there were no strip or power centers, and no big box players or discounters of any consequence. Local city-based Woolworth’s and Woolworth-like stores that blanketed downtowns were more the norm throughout the country. Technology then was embodied by mechanical cash registers in the front of the house and manual comptometers and handwritten ledgers in the back room. [Read more…]

Amazon Finally Gets It: The Next Big Thing For All Pure Digital Players

amazon_openingAmazon’s announcement of its first physical store opening on Manhattan’s 34th Street is not a surprise to me, as I predicted it four years ago in the first edition of my co-authored book, The New Rules of Retail, published in 2010.

The logic was the same then as it is now.  Amazon has a huge database, estimated to be larger than the Pentagon’s — and they know how to use it. The data provide them with laser-sharp knowledge, such as what Jane Doe — who is married with two kids and a dog and is living on the east side of Manhattan (or anywhere in particular) — is eating for breakfast; what brand of jeans she wears; the charities she gives to; the music she likes; and so forth. Therefore, as Amazon rolls out its stores nationally, it can assort each location precisely with those items that are preferred by specific shoppers. The stores will also have screens for downloading information and selecting from Amazon’s massive inventory.

The personalized knowledge that Amazon continues to build on, and that all retailers are pursuing, is collected over time across all accessible consumer browsing and transactional points, and it’s game changing. It tracks consumer-shopping behavior and can be drilled down to individual profiles.  This is the big deal part of the buzz concept, Big Data, because it tells the retailer not only what brands the Jane Does on the East Side prefer, it can also indicate what kind of shopping experience, environment and service they expect. Most traditional retailers have not yet scratched the surface on big data analytics and its laser-like ability to localize, even personalize the shopping experience. It will be interesting to see how Amazon uses its analytical advantage in this area. [Read more…]

Luxury Needs a New Story

luxneedsnewHow Alex and Ani, Saint Laurent and STORY are doing just that

Recently, cracks have begun to show in the “same old story” that serves as the traditional luxury marketing platform. For years, for decades, and in some cases for centuries, luxury brands have been doing the “same old song and dance” for their current and prospective customers. The luxury story, which describes how brands are positioned and marketed, goes like this: exclusivity, design excellence, exceptional workmanship, top-quality materials, and aspiration for brands that one aspires to own and to show off. Things are changing.

In July, Hermes reported a slowdown of sales in its fiscal second quarter 2014. In the same month, LVMH reported first-half year sales were below expectations; and Kering, owner of the heritage Gucci brand, reported a 2.4% decline in the brand’s sale in the second quarter 2014. The only bright spot for Kering was their Saint Laurent brand … but more on that later.

While many fingers point to slackening demand in China as the culprit, American affluent consumers have undergone a dramatic mood swing regarding luxury since the recession, reflected in those disappointing results. That change in attitude is illustrated in Unity Marketing’s Luxury Consumption Index, our measure of affluent consumer confidence based upon quarterly surveys. [Read more…]

Target’s Big Leap of Faith

targetNot long ago, Brian Cornell was appointed Target’s CEO, becoming the retailer’s first CEO hired from the outside instead of being appointed from within the company’s hierarchy.

At any company, when a long-standing practice concerning the appointment of the top-level executive is changed, it usually means there is a lot of repair work to be done at the company. Target is no exception to that.

Let’s take a quick look at four key issues at Target and then see how — or if — Cornell’s experience addresses them. [Read more…]

MAC: All Things to All People…Even If That Maybe Isn’t The Best Idea Right Now

MACUpfront disclaimer #1: MAC is one of the best beauty brands of all time.

Now that that’s firmly out of the way, let’s commit a little heresy and posit that maybe, just maybe – and this is solely one industry-watcher’s opinion, Makeup Artist Cosmetics, founded in Toronto in 1984 by two guys both named Frank (Toskan and Angelo), snatched up by the Estée Lauder Companies in 1998 for a cool $60 million, has lost sight of its North Star.

How do you know a colossal cosmetics company, one that cut its teeth with professional makeup artists and deployed 6’7” drag superstar RuPaul as its very first spokesperson, may be veering off track? When it announces its hot new collaboration with…Brooke Shields.

Upfront disclaimer #2. Brooke Shields is incredibly beautiful and an American institution. [Read more…]

For Moroccanoil, Imitation Is the Most Litigious Form of Flattery

DanaWood1In all likelihood, only Novak Djokovic logs more court time than the corporate counsels of beauty brands in possession of a true rarity; an original idea. Breaking ground in a new category of product? Be prepared to spend your days fending off a slew of increasingly shameless copycats.

Flashback to 2006: An obscure “hair oil” – created not by an A-list coiffeur, but by under-the-radar Montreal salon owner Carmen Tal – starts trickling into the public consciousness. It’s derived from the nuts of argan trees, which are indigenous to Morocco, and is laced with hair-soothing fatty acids. Sure, argan oil is good for other stuff, like preventing heart attacks. But who cares about that when it can deliver livelier, lusher locks? [Read more…]