Warren Shoulberg

About Warren Shoulberg

Warren Shoulberg is editorial director of several home furnishings magazines for Sandow Media and has been reporting on the home business for a long time. He is currently working on his next book, Stupid Business.

Hark the Herald Square Angel

macysIs there any store more associated with the holiday that Christmas has become in America than Macy’s?

After all, how many retailing corporations are the stars of their own legendary motion picture that celebrates the spirit of Christmas? And how many host their own parade that practically signals the start of the holiday shopping season?

So, as Christmas 2013 starts to fade from our consciousness, it seems only appropriate to unwrap a modest ode to Macy’s, specifically for their holiday home merchandising strategy and more generally to the overall management of the store and its position at, or near, the top of the American retailing pyramid.

That we are even doing this is rather remarkable when you think about it. It wasn’t that long ago that many retail observers were pontificating on the end of the great American department store as we knew it. As a business model, the channel was bloated with overhead; geographically-poor locations in declining regional malls; and competitively disadvantaged compared to its big-box discount and superstore brethren. [Read more...]

Down by the River…Amazon Style

Basic RGBThe next time you’re cruising the Internet, type in this URL:

Relentless.com

Surprise!

You’ve arrived at Amazon, courtesy of one of the early working names for the site that Jeff Bezos was considering way back when people were still referring to this thing as the information-superhighway. Just as it’s been a very long time since you’ve heard anybody use that term, Amazon has evolved over the past two decades as the dominant online retailer, much to the embarrassment of the rest of American retailing, which should be ashamed of how they let Bezos and company kick their e-butts.

As many wise and learned observers — not the least of whom is the namesake of this noble enterprise, my friend Robin Lewis — have noted, Amazon is far from done in changing the rules of how Americans buy stuff and its continued lack of profitability should be of little concern for the long-term viability of its business model. If most people are coming to realize the enormous impact Amazon is having on the business-to-consumer relationship, it is perhaps less well known how the company is also significantly changing the business-to-business model. It is every bit as radical a transformation.

Three Distribution Revolutions

You can make the case that there have been three major revolutions in the history of supply chain management in American retailing…the Wells Fargo Wagon not withstanding. The first took place in the 1920s when retailers first started to take ownership of their suppliers. Certainly Sears was in the forefront of that movement, owning major stakes in many companies, including ones that eventually became Kellwood and Whirlpool after being cut loose. Sears wasn’t the only retailer to go this route. The famous Fieldcrest towel began life as the house brand for one Chicago department store by the name of Marshall Field.

The second major revolution in how suppliers dealt with retailers came into its own in the 1980s with three initials: EDI. Electronic Data Interchange was championed by Walmart (then still porting the hyphenated Wal-Mart nomenclature). Orders were transmittedelectronically from the store to the supplier, eliminating the infamous order pad that had been the backbone of the ordering process since the days of the general store. With it came unprecedented access to data all up and down the food chain. Suddenly vendors could see what was selling and where and could anticipate their next orders. This transparency trickled down to other retail operations but nobody did it better than Walmart… and many vendors will tell you that’s still the case today. The third revolution in the supply chain came with the institutionalization of the product sourcing process from China. American suppliers were practically on the next plane to Beijing after Richard Nixon in 1972, but it was very much a haphazard process for many years until The Gap turned to a small Hong Kong trading company called Li & Fung to manage its supply chain process in China.

That model of course became THE model, still in use by virtually every company that sources product from Asia. All of these developments have several things in common. Each was initiated by a dominant retailer looking for a more efficient model. Each took place in a time when the scale of business was being significantly ramped up allowing for these greater economies of scale to be effective. And each gave the early adapters a tremendous competitive advantage that often took others decades to catch up.

If you’re starting to think that those conditions exist again in American retailing, you may be related to Bezos… except that as with many things, he’s way ahead of the rest of us.

And Now, the Fourth Revolution

Amazon has created the next great revolution in B2B supply chain management and it is part of the reason why no other retailer will ever catch up with them in the field of e-tailing. Quite simply, Amazon allows a vendor multiple ways to sell consumers under a system that in the parlance of today can only called distribution-neutral. It is this reason as much as its facing to shoppers that makes Amazon invincible.

There are slight twists and turns to all of these distribution models, but put them all together and one thing is unbelievably clear: Amazon is business generations ahead of the rest of retailing in managing the process of getting goods from the seller to the buyer. Walmart and others can talk about using their stores as distribution points and many stores trump the ability of consumers to place orders online and pick it up in their physical stores. These are valiant attempts to compete but they are so far out of their e-league compared to how Amazon manages the process. As with the other revolutions in the supply chain, it will take other retailers decades to catch up and by then it will be too late, the next revolution will already be here.

Relentless doesn’t even begin to describe it.

Consider all the ways vendors can put their products through the Amazon pipeline:

#1. Amazon Owns and Sells
This is the conventional supplier-retailer model where the store orders goods, takes ownership of the inventory and sells it to the consumer. A vendor gets their wholesale price and is then out of the rest of the transaction.

#2 Vendor Owns and Amazon Sells
Suppliers retain ownership of inventory at their facility until Amazon sells the product. The fulfillment of the order is done by the supplier under the auspices of Amazon, which takes a cut of the sale, generally between 15 and 20 percent.

#3 Vendor Owns, Amazon Sells and Fullfills
Again, the supplier retains ownership of inventory until the sale is made but now the product is physically stored at an Amazon distribution facility. This allows for the fast delivery that is a cornerstone of the Amazon strategy yet Amazon never actually owns the goods, adding to their profit margins. Again, Amazon’s cut is 15 to 20 percent but it also charges some fees for processing the actual order. The trade has come to call this model FBA, or Fulfilled by Amazon.

#4 Vendor Owns and Sells, Amazon Fulfills
Similar model except that the vendor is identified on Amazon as the seller through its own storefront. Amazon is still fulfilling and taking its cut but the supplier is getting some identity with the consumer. Goods can be kept at a supplier DC or by Amazon.

#5 Vendor Sells a Third Party, Amazon Fullfills
Yet another variation, the supplier sells its goods to another entity, sometimes an actual retailer, sometimes an online storefront. That seller then shows up on Amazon beyond the control of the supplier. This is often the case when products turn up on Amazon — often at a screwy price — despite the denials from suppliers that they are selling Amazon directly. In the old days, this used to be called transshipping. And while the tendency might be to think of this being smaller stores employing this strategy, you’ll often see online giants like Sears or Wayfair on Amazon, further muddying up the distribution picture.

Warren Shoulberg is editorial director of several Progressive Business Media business publications for the home furnishings industry. He made his first Amazon purchase in 1997 and hasn’t stopped since.

Lost Shack

Radioshack Lithium BatteryThe good news is that Radio Shack has opened five high-profile remodeled stores featuring its “Let’s Play” strategy that sports a cleaner, pared-down assortment dolled up with electronic merchandising wizardry like video screens and audio plug-in stations.

The bad news is that this leaves 4,306 Radio Shack stores in the country that need to be remodeled.

Welcome to yet another chapter in the ongoing retail soap opera that Radio Shack has become over the past few years. The company is on its fourth CEO in three years, has seen its market cap drop to 2% of what it was at around the start of the century, and it has not made money in at least the past four quarters. All the while, it has seemingly had more merchandising solutions than the number of batteries in its ubiquitous signature department. [Read more...]

Opening the Door on Target’s new Threshold

Robin_Report_Sep2013_stock4Perhaps the Dayton family should have come up with another name for its discount department store start-up back in 1962 if it wasn’t prepared for the inevitable – and as-it-turns-out endless – questions raised by retail observers, competitors, suppliers and, oh yes, customers, about whether the store was on Target, had missed the Target, or otherwise was involved in some Target-related activity.

Be that as it may, those are valid questions to ask, more so than ever when it comes to the country’s second-biggest general merchandise retailer’s home furnishings offerings and its new marquee program called Threshold. Officially rolled-out this past spring after some soft teases over the prior months, Threshold is the single-largest private label program Target has ever introduced, and is no doubt being counted on to carry much of the merchandising load for the retailer in the months and years ahead. [Read more...]

The Home Run

photo-11 Don’t look now, but Wall Street is actually loving home furnishings retailers…finally.

Many of the stock prices of pure-play public retailing corporations that specialize in selling home furnishings —Bed Bath & Beyond, Home Depot, Pier One, Williams Sonoma, Ethan Allen—are at, or near, their recent historical highs.

Restoration Hardware, which went public only last winter after years of struggling to right itself financially, has nearly doubled in price in six months and

people are lining up for the company’s next stock offering. Even the recent poster boy of retailing disaster and disarray, JC Penney (née JCP) has seen its stock run up over the past two months by almost a third. And it’s not been on the departure of retail savant Ron Johnson or the return of Magic Mike Ullman, but on the speculative success of the re-launch of the store’s home department.

All of which begs the question: What’s up with that?

OK, first take the recent run-up in home store share prices in the context of the overall stock market. The Dow has been breaking records on a regular basis for much of the past year. Even as the overall economy continues to slowly recover and unemployment remains a huge drag on consumer spending, Wall Street is riding high as the place where people with money…well, put their money. [Read more...]

JC Brigadoon

Michael-Graves-Design-at-jcp3-photo-credit-jcp1Run, do not walk, to the nearest JC Penney store and go see the new home store. It is perhaps the best merchandised, most beautifully displayed and freshest home furnishings department retailing has seen since the first Macy’s Cellar in San Francisco more than 30 years ago.

And like the mythical Scottish town Brigadoon that appears suddenly and then disappeared not to be seen again for decades, the lifespan of this Penney home department will be short…very short. You see, Ron Johnson delivered exactly what he promised. The home area is breathtaking and unlike virtually anything else in any other store in the country.

Unfortunately, he also delivered exactly what his critics promised. The home re-do will likely be a financial disaster, with shockingly horrible sales and profitability, even in the context of the store’s performance over the past 18 months. [Read more...]

Thinking Beyond the Box

250px-Incredible_UniverseThe Incredible Universe was…well, pretty incredible. There was no store like it ever before – and there’s not likely to be one like it ever again.

For those of you who have gone through retail remembrance reprogramming, a quick history lesson: During the 1990s, which in hindsight represented the full-tilt zenith of big box retailing, superstore chains were exploding. Be it home improvement, home furnishings, computers or consumer electronics, big boxes were multiplying at geometric proportions.

And the biggest box of them all was Incredible Universe, which was a dramatic new retail platform from the folks who ran some of the smallest boxes out there, Radio Shack. Current management at the time – who can remember back that far – decided to out-box everyone else out there and go for broke. The first Incredible Universe opened just off Old Country Road in Westbury on New York’s Long Island, which with the exception of Paramus, New Jersey and Schaumburg, Illinois, is about the most concentrated retail location in the country.

The store was well over 150,000-square feet, if memory serves me well, and featured just about every conceivable product with a plug that existed at the time. And considering this was well before iWhatevers, that was a whole lot of TVs, stereos and toasters. Every shopper got a personal identity card that promised all sorts of digital delights. There were salespeople in snappy uniforms as far as the eye could see. It truly was incredible.

It was also way, way too much. Shoppers were overwhelmed and they ended up underbuying. The Universe as we knew it soon failed to exist.

Fast forward a couple of retail generations to today’s reigning – by process of elimination, it has to be noted – big box player in consumer electronics retailing: Best Buy. We’re not here to go through all of Best Buy’s problems. Frankly, the Robin Report website doesn’t have that much bandwidth. But among the leading issues the retailer faces is that its physical stores are just too big. Talk to anybody who follows retailing and they’ll tell you that the problems of too many stores in the country is only matched by the problem of too-big stores.

And Best Buy has got it the worst. Unlike a Home Depot or a Lowes, which need those tens of thousands of square feet of space for tools and aluminum siding, Best Buy has more space than it knows what to do with. Let’s face it, nobody has bought a CD or DVD in a store since the Bush administration. So, as Best Buy was on the leading edge of the big box movement it may also be in the forefront of the next trend in superstore retailing: Not-So-Big Boxes.
Yes, the DIY twins need that floor space, but does Bed Bath & Beyond or Staples or Office Max require stores that large? What about giant furniture stores like Rooms To Go or Raymour & Flanigan? And does it end there? What about off-pricers like the MarMaxx group? What about supermarket? And ultimately, what about the biggest big boxes of them all, Walmart and Target?

If, as some people predict, anywhere from 30% to 50% of general merchandise sales will eventually be done online, does that mean we are in the final stages of Big Box retailing? Does it mean that, in the end, the big box will be outdone by the small carton?

Warren Shoulberg is editorial director for several Sandow Media home furnishings business publications and is glad he was there for the big box era.

Private Labels, Public Nuisances, and Captured Moments

rr_3-13_private_labelAll the recent hubbub over a certain Connecticut homemaker’s image and brand is only the tip of a major merchandising movement that is starting to consume the home furnishings field. As national brands continue to recede from the category—they are pretty much null and void in soft home categories, like sheets and towels, and hold a tenuous position at best in some smallappliance and housewares classifications—the ascendency of private and captured brands is nearing unprecedented levels.

The spectrum goes from the extreme of Kohl’s where virtually the entire home department is proprietarily branded, to stores like Target, and now Penney, where soft home is all private and hard home is mostly national brands—to ones like Macy’s and Bed Bath & Beyond where the assortments are still…well, assorted. [Read more...]

The Penney Dividend

jc_penney-01There’s a billion dollars of home business missing; anybody have a clue where it went?

One thing is clear: Over the past 12 months, the new JC Penney/The Penney Co./JCP/Whatever has lost about $1 billion in home furnishings sales as it transforms itself into…well, into what it’s not.

Quantum mathematics was never my specialty, but a rough crunching of the numbers shows JCP overall sales off about 24% for the past four quarters since Ron Johnson came to town, and if you figure about a quarter of the retailer’s business is in home, that works out to a drop of about an even billion. That’s a pretty fair square amount.

So, where did it go? While the tendency might be to round up the usual suspects and dole it out accordingly, the fundamental things don’t seem to apply in this case. Certainly, the big winner has been Macy’s. Often located at the other end of the big bad mall from JCP, it has been the beneficiary of a department store diaspora the likes of which we haven’t seen in quite some time. All of the coupon-clipping, one-day-sale-tripping tired-and-poor are parking their cars near the big red star and buying up a storm. Macy’s is clearly enjoying a big home run. [Read more...]

The 10 Commandments of Home

tencommandmentsTO: Ron Johnson, Plano, TX
FROM: A Higher Authority
RE: The Way to the Promised Land

Cecil B. DeMille, where are you now that we need you?

The expedition that Ron Johnson is leading the Penney-ites on will not last 40 years – he’ll be lucky if he gets 40 months – but in just about every other way, the trek is of biblical proportions. Johnson is trying to free one of the most enslaved retailers in the business from what seems an eternity of lackluster merchandising, dysfunctional buying and a generally disjointed business strategy that seems to go in every direction but forward.

Frogs and pestilence have nothing on this saga.

Whether he can lead the company to the Promised Land remains to be seen. Frankly, 2012 was just a warm-up and the real test comes this year when JCP has to start anniversarying its lame numbers that started last February. If they can’t beat those comps, Bill Ackman – the hedge fund honcho who has been manipulating this whole thing from the other side of the balance sheet – is going to show why patience is not one of his virtues and there’ll no doubt be a new

sheriff in Plano before long. So, as Johnson tries to part the retail seas and find a route for JCP to succeed, I say it is his Home business that is going to help lead the way. More so than at any other national general merchandise retailer, JCP Home is a larger percentage of overall sales, led by soft home. That has always been a core strength of what those in the trade still call “The Penney Company,” and regardless of the name over the front door these days, if Home doesn’t work, JCP doesn’t work. [Read more...]

A Toys Story

The Robin Report - A Toys StoryThere’s a certain irony in the fact that the world’s very first category killer was also the first of its big-box ilk to be severely challenged and nearly decimated by the even bigger-box mass merchants…and now may also be leading the way once again in learning how to co-exist and maybe even thrive in a world dominated by discounters and onliners.

What a long strange trip it’s been.

But Toys”R”Us should be very grateful it is not dead, and the tale of Toys is largely instructional for the entire channel of distribution known as ‘super specialty retailing.’ Toys was there for the channel’s glory days, nearly succumbed to the merchandising maladies that took down many of its box brethren, and has experienced a retail resurrection that—if not quite a miracle—worthy of store sainthood is nevertheless remarkable in its own right. None of this could have been even remotely predicted back in1948 on Washington DC’s 18th Street NW when a post-war entrepre-neur named Charlie Lazarus opened a baby furniture store called Children’s Supermart. As big stores go, it wasn’t much. But back then, it seemed to be the right store for the right time as newly formed post-War families started booming out babies and needed a place to buy all the paraphernalia—cribs, strollers, whatever—that came with the territory. [Read more...]

Innovation in Home Products…It Ain’t Just Fitted Sheets

Drum Roll Please, Ladies and Gentlemen.

Announcing the three greatest moments of innovation in the history of home furnishings products:

3. Furniture manufacturers, trying to reduce their cost of upholstering with expensive craftsmen and detailed stitching and sewing techniques, invent the staple gun as a way to attach fabric to frame.

2. Small appliance makers, seeking to differentiate their blenders and give them the perception of more power, employ a Spinal Tap-esque technique and increase the markings on the speed indicator of their machines from “10” to “11.”

1. Producers of bed sheets, responding to a customer base that wants to cut corners on making hospital corners, run elastic around the edge of their product and create the fitted sheet.

OK, so innovation has not been the strong suit of the home furnishings industry. Outside of the consumer electronics segment of the home business—and let’s face it, the CE guys don’t consider themselves on the same planet, much less the same industry as companies that make furniture and housewares and home textiles—the industry’s track record when it comes to creating innovative products is pretty dismal. [Read more...]